ᱫᱷᱟᱯ ᱫᱷᱟᱯ: ᱢᱤᱫ ᱢᱟᱨᱴᱤᱝᱜᱮᱞ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ
ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱨᱮ ᱜᱮᱞ ᱰᱚᱞᱟᱨ, ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ, $500 ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱨᱮ᱾ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱛᱮ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ, ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱨᱮ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫᱚᱜ-ᱟ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱥᱟᱶ᱾
$1,000 ᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱯᱩᱸᱡᱤ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱤᱢᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱢᱟᱨᱴᱤᱝᱜᱮᱞ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ᱾ ᱯᱩᱱ ᱜᱮᱞ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱦᱩᱰᱤᱧ ᱡᱤᱛ, ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱛᱩᱨᱩᱭ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱟᱨ ᱮᱭᱟᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱦᱟᱛᱟᱣ᱾ $410 ᱞᱟᱵᱷ ᱨᱮ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ $220 ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫᱚᱜ-ᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱥᱤᱥᱴᱮᱢ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱠᱟᱹᱢᱤ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾
ᱡᱚᱡᱚᱢ
ᱟᱨᱟᱜᱵᱟᱡᱤᱟᱨᱟᱜ18 ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ᱾ ᱯᱷᱨᱮᱧᱪ ᱨᱮ: ᱨᱩᱡᱽ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱨᱮ $10 ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣ ᱯᱮ᱾ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱯᱮ᱾ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟ $10 ᱨᱮ᱾ ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱥᱤᱢᱟᱹᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱥᱤᱢᱟᱹᱦᱩᱠᱩᱢ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱥᱮ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱟᱨ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱥᱮ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ᱾ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱥᱮ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱥᱤᱢᱟᱹ ᱜᱮ ᱰᱚᱵᱚᱞ ᱯᱨᱚᱜᱽᱨᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱵᱚᱸᱫᱟ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → $500, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320 ᱟᱨ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ $640 ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱫᱚ ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱦᱟᱛᱟᱣᱟ᱾ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱛᱩᱨᱩᱭ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱥᱤᱥᱴᱮᱢ ᱨᱟᱯᱩᱫᱟ; ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱪᱮᱥᱴᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ (19/37)⁶ ≈ 1.8% ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ, ᱟᱨ 100 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ 50 ᱪᱮᱥᱴᱟ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ: 100 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱵᱷᱤᱛᱤᱨ ᱨᱟᱯᱩᱫ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ 60% ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱨᱟᱯᱩᱫ ᱨᱮ $630 ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ᱾
ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ 1–30
ᱥᱟᱫᱷᱟᱨᱚᱬ ᱢᱟᱨᱴᱤᱝᱜᱮᱞᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴᱮᱡᱤᱢᱟᱨᱴᱤᱝᱜᱮᱞᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱰᱚᱵᱚᱞ ᱯᱨᱚᱜᱽᱨᱮᱥᱚᱱ᱾ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱮ ᱠᱟᱹᱢᱤᱭᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱵᱟᱭ ᱠᱟᱹᱢᱤᱭᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟ ᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴᱮᱡᱤ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱨᱮ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱯᱮ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ →: ᱢᱤᱫ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱯᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱫᱟᱹᱲ, ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱛᱮ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫᱚᱜ-ᱟ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ +$10 ᱥᱩᱫᱽ ᱮᱢᱟ᱾ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ 30 ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱟᱵᱚ 17 ᱡᱤᱛ ᱧᱟᱢ ᱟᱠᱟᱫᱟ, ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱪᱟᱠᱨᱚ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ, ᱟᱨ $170 ᱞᱟᱵᱷ ᱨᱮ᱾ ᱮᱱᱦᱚᱸ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱥᱟᱵᱟᱜ ᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱯᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ $80 ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱫᱚ $10 ᱱᱚᱴ ᱪᱷᱟᱯᱟ ᱢᱮᱥᱤᱱ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱵᱩᱡᱷᱟᱹᱣᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ 31–60
ᱟᱨᱦᱚᱸ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ, ᱯᱩᱱ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱪᱟᱠᱨᱚ ᱥᱟᱶ (ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ $160 ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ, ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱡᱤᱛ) ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱫᱚ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱜᱟᱱ ᱚᱠᱛᱚ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱨᱮ $310 ᱫᱚᱦᱚ ᱠᱮᱫᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱥᱟᱦᱚᱥ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱵᱩᱡᱷᱟᱹᱣ ᱞᱮᱱᱟ᱾ 60 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ: 41 ᱪᱟᱠᱨᱚ ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ, $410 ᱞᱟᱵᱷ ᱨᱮ, ᱟᱨ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ 30 ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱯᱩᱸᱡᱤᱴᱟᱠᱟᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱯᱩᱸᱡᱤᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱟᱞᱟᱜ ᱫᱚᱦᱚ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ᱾ ᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱯᱩᱸᱡᱤ ᱥᱟᱢᱵᱷᱟᱞ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱮᱱᱮᱛ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱟᱨ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱡᱚᱠᱷᱤᱢ ᱨᱮ ᱫᱚᱦᱚᱭ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱴᱷᱟᱹᱣᱠᱟᱹ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱟᱵᱟᱜ ᱞᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ $1,040 ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱢᱟᱨᱴᱤᱝᱜᱮᱞ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱦᱤᱥᱴᱚᱜᱽᱨᱟᱢ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱡᱟᱜ ᱡᱟᱹᱥᱛᱤ ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱨᱮ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱧᱮᱞᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ 61–66
ᱦᱟᱹ ᱦᱟᱹ ᱦᱟᱹ ᱦᱟᱹ ᱦᱟᱹ ᱦᱟᱹ᱾ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320: $630 ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣ᱾ ᱫᱟᱨᱟᱭ ᱛᱮ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱫᱚ $640 ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ; ᱥᱤᱢᱟᱹ ᱫᱚ $500᱾ ᱥᱤᱥᱴᱮᱢ ᱨᱟᱯᱩᱫ ᱮᱱᱟ᱾ ᱟᱵᱚ $500 ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣ ᱫᱟᱲᱮᱭᱟᱜ-ᱟ (ᱟᱨ ᱡᱩᱫᱤ ᱡᱤᱛᱚᱜ-ᱟ, ᱮᱱᱦᱚᱸ ᱪᱟᱠᱨᱚ ᱨᱮ $130 ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ) ᱵᱟᱝᱠᱷᱟᱱ $10 ᱨᱮ ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱦᱟᱛᱟᱣ ᱫᱟᱲᱮᱭᱟᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱛᱩᱨᱩᱭ ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮᱵᱟᱡᱤᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ18 ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ᱾ ᱯᱷᱨᱮᱧᱪ ᱨᱮ: ᱱᱣᱟᱨ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱥᱮ ᱡᱤᱨᱚᱪᱟᱠᱟᱡᱤᱨᱚᱢᱤᱫᱜᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱨᱭᱟᱹᱲ ᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ, ᱰᱚᱡᱮᱱ ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱠᱚᱞᱚᱢ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱵᱟᱭ ᱠᱚᱵᱷᱟᱨᱟ; ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱵᱟᱲᱛᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱢᱩᱞ᱾ ᱮᱴᱟᱜ ᱧᱩᱛᱩᱢ: ᱥᱤᱝᱜᱚᱞ ᱡᱤᱨᱚ, 0᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟᱢᱤᱫ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ, 0 ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 1 ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ 0% ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 100%᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱮᱞ: 1/37 = 2.70%᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱫᱚ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱪᱟᱠᱨᱚ ᱨᱮ 1.8%᱾ ᱟᱵᱚ ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ 45 ᱪᱟᱠᱨᱚ ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱣ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ᱾ 45 ᱪᱟᱠᱨᱚ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱥᱮ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱥᱮᱴᱮᱨ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ 55% ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱠᱷᱟᱨᱟᱯ ᱵᱷᱟᱹᱜ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ; ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱛᱟᱞᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾
- p10 −$1,000
- p25 −$1,000
- ᱢᱤᱰᱤᱭᱟᱱ −$1,000
- p75 +$790
- p90 +$1,690
ᱦᱤᱥᱟᱹᱵ
60 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ $410 ᱞᱟᱵᱷ, 66 ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ $220 ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ᱾ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ: 66 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ $2,100, ᱢᱤᱫ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱱ $10 ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣᱤᱭᱟᱹ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ $660 ᱛᱩᱞᱟᱹ᱾ $2,100 ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱦᱤᱥᱟᱹᱵᱴᱟᱠᱟᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱦᱤᱥᱟᱹᱵᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱚᱠᱛᱚ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ, ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱥᱮᱞᱮᱫ᱾ ᱮᱴᱟᱜ ᱧᱩᱛᱩᱢ: ᱦᱮᱱᱰᱮᱞ, ᱮᱠᱥᱚᱱ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱨᱮ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝ ᱜᱩᱬ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ; ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱚᱠᱛᱚ ᱨᱮ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱛᱮ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣᱚᱜ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → $57; ᱟᱵᱚᱣᱟᱜ ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ −$220 ᱫᱚ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱴᱮᱱᱰᱟᱨᱰ ᱰᱤᱵᱷᱤᱭᱮᱥᱚᱱᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛᱥᱴᱮᱱᱰᱟᱨᱰ ᱰᱤᱵᱷᱤᱭᱮᱥᱚᱱᱣᱮᱨᱤᱭᱮᱱᱥ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱚᱜᱚ ᱢᱩᱞ; ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱟᱫᱷᱟᱨᱚᱱ ᱥᱟᱦᱟ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ ᱯᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱞᱟᱛᱟᱨ, ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱞᱮᱸᱜᱟ ᱞᱟᱡᱩᱢ ᱵᱟᱸᱴᱟᱣ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ ᱥᱤᱥᱴᱮᱢ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱥᱟᱫᱷᱟᱨᱚᱬ ᱜᱮ᱾ ᱡᱩᱫᱤ ᱟᱵᱚ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ 60 ᱨᱮ $400 ᱡᱤᱛ ᱥᱤᱢᱟᱹᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴᱮᱡᱤᱡᱤᱛ ᱥᱤᱢᱟᱹᱞᱟᱦᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱛᱷᱤᱠ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ ᱞᱟᱵᱷ ᱡᱚᱠᱷᱟ, ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱮᱴᱮᱨ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟᱱ ᱟᱯᱮ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱵᱚᱸᱫ ᱯᱮ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱥᱟᱶ ᱛᱤᱝᱜᱩ ᱞᱮᱱ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱ ᱠᱷᱟᱱ, $410 ᱞᱟᱵᱷ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱮᱱ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱫᱟᱨᱟᱭ ᱛᱮ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱪᱟᱠᱨᱚ ᱨᱮ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ 1.8% ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱᱟ᱾
ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ ᱮᱫᱟ
ᱢᱟᱨᱴᱤᱝᱜᱮᱞ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ 48.65% ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱤᱠᱣᱮᱱᱥ ᱨᱮ ᱵᱚᱫᱚᱞᱟ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱡᱟᱜ 98% ᱪᱟᱠᱨᱚ ᱡᱤᱛᱟᱹᱣᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱵᱟᱠᱤ 2% ᱨᱮ 63 ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴᱴᱟᱠᱟᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱤᱥᱴᱮᱢ ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱵᱮᱵᱷᱟᱨ ᱵᱮᱥ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ᱾ ᱯᱨᱚᱜᱽᱨᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱠᱚ ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴ ᱛᱮ ᱵᱩᱡᱷᱟᱹᱣᱚᱜ-ᱟ ᱡᱮᱢᱚᱱ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱩ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣᱟ᱾ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱰᱚᱞᱟᱨ ᱨᱮ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱵᱚᱫᱚᱞᱟ; ᱰᱚᱞᱟᱨ ᱜᱮ ᱟᱭᱢᱟ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱮ ᱵᱮᱱᱟᱣᱟ᱾ ᱟᱵᱚ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱱ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣᱤᱭᱟᱹ ᱫᱚ ᱯᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱮ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱛᱮ ᱯᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱮ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ᱾ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱮᱨᱢᱟ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱥᱤᱥᱴᱮᱢ ᱮ ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱣᱟ, ᱩᱱᱤ ᱡᱟᱹᱥᱛᱤ ᱟᱭᱩᱵ ᱮ ᱡᱤᱛᱟᱹᱣᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱥᱮᱨᱢᱟ ᱮ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣᱟ᱾
ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱥᱟᱦᱟᱣ ᱦᱤᱡᱩᱜ-ᱟ
ᱥᱤᱝᱜᱚᱞ ᱡᱤᱨᱚ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱫᱚ 37 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱨᱮ 19 ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱛᱷᱟᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ ᱮᱫᱟ ᱡᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱜᱟᱱ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱪᱮᱫ, ᱟᱨ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱠᱟᱫ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱢᱟᱨᱴᱤᱝᱜᱮᱞ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣ ᱟᱠᱟᱫᱟᱭ᱾
| ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ | ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ | ᱢᱚᱴᱟ ᱢᱩᱴᱤ 1 / | ᱱᱤᱛᱚᱜ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ | ᱫᱟᱨᱟᱭ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $4 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $15 | $16 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $31 | $32 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $63 | $64 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $127 | $128 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $255 | $256 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $511 | $512 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $1,023 | $1,024 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $2,047 | $2,048 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $4,095 | $4,096 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $8,191 | $8,192 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $16,383 | $16,384 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $32,767 | $32,768 |
ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ 19/37 ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱢᱤᱫ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱨᱮ ᱟᱡ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱜᱩᱱ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ, ᱢᱤᱫ ᱛᱷᱤᱨ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ ᱟᱭᱢᱟ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱱ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱮᱦᱚᱵ ᱫᱟᱲᱮᱭᱟᱜ-ᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱟᱭᱩᱵ ᱨᱮ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱛᱷᱟᱨ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱦᱩᱭ ᱫᱟᱲᱮᱭᱟᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱠᱩᱠᱞᱤ ᱠᱚ
ᱛᱩᱨᱩᱭ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱦᱮᱱᱫᱮ ᱟᱨᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱨᱟᱯᱩᱫᱟ: ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱪᱟᱠᱨᱚ ᱨᱮ 0.25%, ᱟᱨ ᱦᱩᱭ ᱠᱷᱟᱱ $5,110 ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣ᱾ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱫᱚᱨᱚᱢ ᱜᱟᱰᱟ, ᱩᱪᱩ ᱜᱟᱰᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ −2.70%᱾
ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱫᱚ 48.65% ᱚᱠᱛᱚ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱮᱱᱦᱚᱸ ᱪᱟᱠᱨᱚ ᱫᱚ −$130 ᱨᱮ ᱵᱟᱹᱜᱤ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱᱟ᱾ ᱨᱟᱯᱩᱫ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ ᱢᱟᱨᱴᱤᱝᱜᱮᱞ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱵᱮᱥ ᱫᱷᱟᱯ ᱵᱟᱹᱱᱩᱜ-ᱟ; ᱫᱟᱨᱟᱭ ᱛᱮ ᱟᱯᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱪᱷᱟᱣ ᱯᱮ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱦᱚᱭ, ᱚᱱᱟ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ᱾ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱝ᱾
ᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱨᱟᱹᱥᱠᱟᱹ
ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱠᱚ ᱯᱩᱭᱞᱩ ᱟᱯᱮ ᱛᱮ ᱠᱩᱨᱩᱢᱩᱴᱩ ᱯᱮ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱫᱷᱟᱱ ᱫᱚ ᱩᱠᱩ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ; ᱛᱮᱭᱟᱨ ᱦᱩᱭ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ ᱡᱷᱤᱡᱽ ᱯᱮ᱾
$1 ᱠᱷᱚᱱ $500 ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱨᱮ, ᱢᱤᱫ ᱢᱟᱨᱴᱤᱝᱜᱮᱞᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴᱮᱡᱤᱢᱟᱨᱴᱤᱝᱜᱮᱞᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱰᱚᱵᱚᱞ ᱯᱨᱚᱜᱽᱨᱮᱥᱚᱱ᱾ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱮ ᱠᱟᱹᱢᱤᱭᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱵᱟᱭ ᱠᱟᱹᱢᱤᱭᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟ ᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴᱮᱡᱤ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱨᱮ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱯᱮ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱥᱤᱝᱜᱚᱞ ᱡᱤᱨᱚᱪᱟᱠᱟᱡᱤᱨᱚᱢᱤᱫᱜᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱨᱭᱟᱹᱲ ᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ, ᱰᱚᱡᱮᱱ ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱠᱚᱞᱚᱢ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱵᱟᱭ ᱠᱚᱵᱷᱟᱨᱟ; ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱵᱟᱲᱛᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱢᱩᱞ᱾ ᱮᱴᱟᱜ ᱧᱩᱛᱩᱢ: ᱥᱤᱝᱜᱚᱞ ᱡᱤᱨᱚ, 0᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱟᱨᱟᱜᱵᱟᱡᱤᱟᱨᱟᱜ18 ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ᱾ ᱯᱷᱨᱮᱧᱪ ᱨᱮ: ᱨᱩᱡᱽ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱨᱮ $1 ᱛᱮ ᱮᱦᱚᱵᱟᱭ᱾ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱛᱤᱝᱜᱩᱭᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣᱚᱜ-ᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ?
ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱫᱷᱟᱱ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ
ᱛᱮᱞᱟ ᱟᱨᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ: $511 ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ, ᱟᱨ ᱫᱟᱨᱟᱭ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ $512 ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ 403 ᱥᱤᱨᱤᱡᱽ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱠᱚ ᱫᱚ 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 ᱟᱨ 256: ᱢᱤᱫ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ $511᱾ ᱜᱮᱞ ᱥᱟᱭ ᱫᱚ $512 ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ, ᱥᱤᱢᱟᱹ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ᱾ ᱡᱤᱛ $500 ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱫᱚ $11 ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱨᱮ ᱫᱚᱦᱚᱭᱟ; ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱩᱱᱤ $1,011 ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱨᱮ ᱫᱚᱦᱚᱭᱟ᱾
ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱫᱚ 19/37 ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱛᱮ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣᱚᱜ-ᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱟᱨᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ (19/37)⁹ ≈ 0.25%, ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ 403 ᱥᱤᱨᱤᱡᱽ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ᱾ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱥᱤᱨᱤᱡᱽ $1 ᱡᱤᱛᱟᱹᱣᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ $511 ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱞᱟᱦᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ $402 ᱦᱩᱰᱤᱧ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱫᱟᱲᱮᱭᱟᱭ, ᱟᱨ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ 2.70% ᱫᱚ ᱱᱤᱛᱚᱜ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱛᱮ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱰᱚᱵᱚᱞ ᱡᱤᱨᱚ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ (20/38)⁹, ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ 323 ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ᱾ ᱵᱚᱞᱢᱟᱱ (Bollman) (2021) ᱫᱚ “ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ 833 ᱨᱮ 1” ᱪᱷᱟᱯᱟ ᱟᱠᱟᱫᱟᱭ, ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱫᱚ (18/38)⁹, ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱟᱨᱮ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ᱾
ᱞᱟᱸᱫᱟ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱠᱚᱢᱤᱠ
ᱯᱩᱱ ᱜᱮᱞ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱦᱩᱰᱤᱧ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱟᱨ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ᱾ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱥᱤᱥᱴᱮᱢ ᱫᱚ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱜᱮ᱾
ᱯᱷᱮᱰᱟᱛ
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”