ᱯᱟᱨᱚᱞᱤ ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴᱮᱡᱤ (ᱩᱞᱴᱟᱹ ᱢᱟᱨᱴᱤᱝᱜᱮᱞ)
ᱯᱟᱨᱚᱞᱤ ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴᱮᱡᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱜᱩᱱ ᱮᱫᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱥᱮ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱯᱮ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟ ᱮᱦᱚᱵ ᱮᱫᱟ᱾
ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱭ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣᱟ; ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱦᱮᱡᱚᱜ-ᱟ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱵᱚᱫᱚᱞ ᱮᱫᱟ᱾ ᱯᱟᱨᱚᱞᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱟᱭᱠᱮᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱟᱯᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱡᱟᱜ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱵᱮᱥ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱜᱮ ᱡᱚᱠᱷᱤᱢ ᱨᱮ ᱫᱚᱦᱚᱭᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱵᱟᱠᱤ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣ ᱮᱫᱟ᱾ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝ ᱜᱩᱬ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ; ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱚᱠᱛᱚ ᱨᱮ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱛᱮ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣᱚᱜ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱵᱚᱫᱚᱞᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱥᱤᱥᱴᱮᱢ ᱛᱮ ᱥᱮᱱ ᱯᱮ
ᱡᱤᱛ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱫᱷᱟᱯ ᱥᱟᱢᱟᱝ ᱥᱟᱦᱮᱫ ᱮᱫᱟ᱾ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ, ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱛᱮᱥᱟᱨ ᱡᱤᱛ, ᱮᱦᱚᱵ ᱛᱮ ᱨᱩᱣᱟᱹᱲ ᱮᱫᱟ᱾
ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱩᱞ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱯᱟᱨᱚᱞᱤ ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱥᱤᱥᱴᱮᱢ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱠᱟᱹᱢᱤᱭ-ᱟ?
ᱢᱤᱫ ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴᱴᱟᱠᱟᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱤᱥᱴᱮᱢ ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱵᱮᱵᱷᱟᱨ ᱵᱮᱥ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ᱾ ᱯᱨᱚᱜᱽᱨᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱠᱚ ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴ ᱛᱮ ᱵᱩᱡᱷᱟᱹᱣᱚᱜ-ᱟ ᱡᱮᱢᱚᱱ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱩ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣ ᱯᱮ᱾ ᱡᱤᱛᱟᱹᱣ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟᱱ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱜᱮ ᱫᱚᱦᱚᱭ ᱯᱮ: ᱫᱟᱨᱟᱭ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱟᱨᱦᱚᱸ ᱡᱤᱛᱟᱹᱣ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟᱱ ᱯᱩᱱ᱾ ᱯᱮ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱡᱤᱛᱟᱹᱣ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟᱱ ᱮᱭᱟᱭ ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴ ᱞᱟᱵᱷ ᱦᱟᱛᱟᱣ ᱯᱮ ᱟᱨ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱨᱮ ᱨᱩᱣᱟᱹᱲ ᱯᱮ᱾ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱡᱟᱭᱜᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟᱱ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱨᱮ ᱜᱮ ᱨᱩᱣᱟᱹᱲ ᱯᱮ᱾ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱥᱤᱥᱴᱮᱢ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ ᱯᱟᱦᱤᱞ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱟᱯᱮ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱛᱮ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣ ᱮᱫᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱥᱟᱭᱠᱮᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱟᱯᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱡᱟᱜ ᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱯᱩᱸᱡᱤᱴᱟᱠᱟᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱯᱩᱸᱡᱤᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱟᱞᱟᱜ ᱫᱚᱦᱚ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ᱾ ᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱯᱩᱸᱡᱤ ᱥᱟᱢᱵᱷᱟᱞ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱮᱱᱮᱛ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱟᱨ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱡᱚᱠᱷᱤᱢ ᱨᱮ ᱫᱚᱦᱚᱭ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱴᱷᱟᱹᱣᱠᱟᱹ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱥᱮ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴ ᱜᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱯᱮ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟᱢᱤᱫ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ, 0 ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 1 ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ 0% ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 100%᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱮᱞ: 1/37 = 2.70%᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱫᱚ (18/37)³ = 11.5% ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱟᱨᱮ ᱥᱟᱭᱠᱮᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱟᱭᱠᱮᱞ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ᱾
ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱫᱚ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱧᱮᱞᱚᱜ-ᱟ?
ᱞᱟᱦᱟᱭ ᱞᱟᱦᱟᱭ ᱞᱤᱠ ᱟᱨ ᱡᱚᱦᱚᱢ ᱡᱚᱦᱚᱢ ᱫᱩᱯᱩᱨ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱜᱮ ᱦᱩᱰᱤᱧ ᱴᱤᱠᱮᱴ ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟ ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟ ᱠᱤᱨᱤᱧ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱩᱭᱦᱟᱹᱨ ᱯᱮ: ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱴᱤᱠᱮᱴ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝ, ᱡᱟᱹᱥᱛᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱠᱷᱟᱹᱞᱤ ᱜᱮᱭᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱟᱨᱮ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱮᱭᱟᱭ ᱮᱢ ᱮᱫᱟ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ 100-ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱞᱟᱵᱷ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱠᱚᱢ (ᱡᱚᱦᱚᱢ 30%) ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱪᱮᱫᱟᱜ ᱥᱮ ᱡᱟᱹᱥᱛᱤ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ-ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱡᱩᱛ ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱥᱟᱭᱠᱮᱞ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ; ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱞᱟᱵᱷ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫᱚᱜ-ᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱡᱟᱜ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱛᱮ ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱞᱟᱵᱷ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- ᱢᱤᱰᱤᱭᱟᱱ −$300
- p75 +$30
- p90 +$320
ᱯᱟᱨᱚᱞᱤ ᱥᱤᱥᱴᱮᱢ ᱠᱟᱹᱢᱤᱭ-ᱟ ᱥᱮ?
ᱵᱟᱝ᱾ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱫᱷᱟᱸᱪᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱵᱚᱫᱚᱞ ᱮᱫᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱢᱟᱯ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱝ᱾ ᱢᱮᱱ ᱞᱮ p = 18/37᱾ p³ = 0.115 ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱥᱟᱶ 7 ᱡᱤᱛ; 1 − p³ = 0.885 ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱥᱟᱶ 1 ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱟᱭᱠᱮᱞ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ: 7(0.115) − 1(0.885) = 0.805 − 0.885 = −0.08 ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱟᱭᱠᱮᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴ: 1 + 2p + 4p² = 1 + 0.973 + 0.947 = 2.92᱾ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱯᱮ: −0.08 / 2.92 = −2.7%᱾ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟᱱ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱥᱤᱥᱴᱮᱢ ᱫᱚ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱮᱞ ᱜᱮ ᱮᱢ ᱮᱫᱟ᱾
ᱞᱩᱵᱷᱟᱹᱣ ᱩᱭᱦᱟᱹᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ ᱡᱮ ᱫᱚᱦᱚ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ ᱪᱤᱯᱴᱟᱠᱟᱪᱤᱯᱛᱷᱤᱠ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱪᱤᱱᱦᱟᱹ ᱴᱚᱠᱮᱱ, ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱞᱮᱭᱟᱣᱴ ᱨᱮ ᱫᱚᱦᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱮᱴᱟᱜ ᱧᱩᱛᱩᱢ: ᱪᱮᱠ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱫᱚ ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱠᱚ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱠᱷᱚᱨᱚᱪ ᱵᱟᱹᱱᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱵᱷᱩᱜᱛᱟᱱ ᱦᱩᱭ ᱚᱠᱛᱚ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱠᱚ ᱟᱯᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱜᱮᱭᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟ ᱫᱚᱦᱚ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱪᱤᱯ ᱨᱮ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ 2.70% ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱯᱩᱱ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱛᱟᱹᱝᱜᱤ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟᱱ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ?
ᱯᱩᱱ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱯᱟᱨᱚᱞᱤᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴᱮᱡᱤᱯᱟᱨᱚᱞᱤᱯᱚᱡᱤᱴᱤᱵᱷ ᱯᱨᱚᱜᱽᱨᱮᱥᱚᱱ: ᱡᱤᱛ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱰᱚᱵᱚᱞ, ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱯᱮ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟ ᱮᱛᱚᱦᱚᱵ᱾ ᱮᱴᱟᱜ ᱧᱩᱛᱩᱢ: ᱩᱞᱴᱟᱹ ᱢᱟᱨᱴᱤᱝᱜᱮᱞ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 16 ᱵᱮᱱᱟᱣ ᱮᱫᱟ, 15 ᱞᱟᱵᱷ, (18/37)⁴ = 5.6% ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱥᱟᱶ᱾ ᱴᱮᱞᱟᱨ (Taylor) (2021) ᱫᱚ ᱟᱨᱦᱚᱸ ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱛᱤ ᱠᱩᱠᱞᱤ ᱮ ᱠᱩᱞᱤ ᱮᱫᱟ: ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱜᱟᱱ ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱯᱩᱸᱡᱤ ᱥᱟᱶ, ᱯᱩᱸᱡᱤ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫ ᱞᱟᱦᱟ ᱮᱱᱟ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱱ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱧᱟᱢ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ? ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱵᱷᱮᱜᱟᱨ ᱥᱟᱭᱠᱮᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴ ᱠᱷᱚᱨᱚᱪᱚᱜ-ᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ 15 ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱛᱮᱞᱟ ᱫᱚ 1 − (1 − 0.056)¹⁵ = 58% ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ 15 ᱟᱨᱟᱜᱵᱟᱡᱤᱟᱨᱟᱜ18 ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ᱾ ᱯᱷᱨᱮᱧᱪ ᱨᱮ: ᱨᱩᱡᱽ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱨᱮ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ 48.6% ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱮᱥ ᱜᱮᱭᱟ᱾ ᱮᱴᱟᱜ ᱮᱞ ᱠᱚ ᱨᱮ ᱯᱮᱸᱪ ᱧᱮᱞᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱡᱟᱜ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱛᱮ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱜᱟᱱ ᱵᱷᱮᱜᱟᱨ ᱥᱟᱭᱠᱮᱞ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱦᱮᱡᱚᱜ-ᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱦᱮᱡ ᱚᱠᱛᱚ ᱨᱮ ᱞᱟᱵᱷ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱛᱮ 9 ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ, 15 ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱝ, ᱟᱨ ᱯᱨᱚᱜᱽᱨᱮᱥᱚᱱᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴᱮᱡᱤᱯᱨᱚᱜᱽᱨᱮᱥᱚᱱᱢᱟᱨᱮ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱛᱮ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱚᱫᱚᱞ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱱᱤᱭᱚᱢ᱾ ᱱᱮᱜᱮᱴᱤᱵᱷ ᱯᱨᱚᱜᱽᱨᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱵᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣᱟ, ᱯᱚᱡᱤᱴᱤᱵᱷ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱫᱚ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣ ᱮᱫᱟ ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱠᱷᱟᱨᱟᱯ ᱜᱮᱭᱟ᱾
ᱟᱯᱮ ᱚᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱛᱷᱤᱨ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱯᱷᱟᱨᱟᱠ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ ᱥᱮ?
ᱫᱷᱟᱸᱪᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱜᱮ᱾ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ (3 ᱦᱟᱛᱟᱣ) ᱥᱮ ᱯᱩᱱ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ (15 ᱦᱟᱛᱟᱣ) ᱯᱟᱨᱚᱞᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱦᱤᱴ ᱦᱟᱨ ᱟᱨ ᱤᱱᱟᱹᱢ ᱵᱚᱫᱚᱞ ᱮᱫᱟ, ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱵᱟᱲᱛᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱝ᱾ ᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴ ᱚᱯ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱨᱮ “ᱯᱟᱨᱞᱮ” (35 ᱨᱮ 1 ᱡᱤᱛ ᱫᱚᱦᱚ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ) ᱫᱚ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱩᱭᱦᱟᱹᱨ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, p = 1/37 ᱥᱟᱶ ᱟᱨ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱦᱤᱴ ᱨᱮ 1,295 ᱨᱮ 1 ᱵᱷᱩᱜᱛᱟᱱᱴᱟᱠᱟᱵᱷᱩᱜᱛᱟᱱᱡᱤᱛ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱨᱩᱣᱟᱹᱲᱟ, ᱨᱩᱣᱟᱹᱲ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱪᱮᱛᱟᱱ “X ᱨᱮ 1” ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱨᱚᱲᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱥᱟᱶ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱟᱹᱥᱛᱤ ᱠᱟᱹᱦᱱᱤ ᱜᱮ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱵᱮᱵᱷᱟᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱝ᱾
ᱚᱠᱟᱭ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱵᱟᱪᱷᱟᱣ ᱮᱫᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱪᱮᱫᱟᱜ?
ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱠᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱟᱭᱠᱮᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱟᱨ ᱦᱩᱰᱤᱧ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱥᱮ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱠᱚ ᱥᱟᱱᱟᱢ ᱮᱫᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱞᱟᱦᱟᱭ ᱞᱟᱦᱟᱭ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱨᱮ ᱠᱩᱥᱤ ᱠᱚ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱟᱨᱴᱤᱝᱜᱮᱞᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴᱮᱡᱤᱢᱟᱨᱴᱤᱝᱜᱮᱞᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱰᱚᱵᱚᱞ ᱯᱨᱚᱜᱽᱨᱮᱥᱚᱱ᱾ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱮ ᱠᱟᱹᱢᱤᱭᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱵᱟᱭ ᱠᱟᱹᱢᱤᱭᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟ ᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴᱮᱡᱤ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱨᱮ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱯᱮ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱢᱚᱱ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱨᱥᱤ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ: ᱢᱟᱨᱴᱤᱝᱜᱮᱞ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱯᱮ ᱡᱤᱛᱚᱜ ᱦᱚᱲ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱟᱹᱭᱩᱨ ᱮᱫᱟ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱧᱤᱫᱟᱹ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱵᱟᱝ; ᱯᱟᱨᱚᱞᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱯᱮ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣᱚᱜ ᱦᱚᱲ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱟᱹᱭᱩᱨ ᱮᱫᱟ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱧᱤᱫᱟᱹ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱵᱟᱝ᱾ ᱵᱟᱨᱭᱟ ᱦᱟᱹᱞᱚᱛ ᱨᱮ ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱦᱤᱥᱟᱹᱵᱴᱟᱠᱟᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱦᱤᱥᱟᱹᱵᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱚᱠᱛᱚ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ, ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱥᱮᱞᱮᱫ᱾ ᱮᱴᱟᱜ ᱧᱩᱛᱩᱢ: ᱦᱮᱱᱰᱮᱞ, ᱮᱠᱥᱚᱱ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ 2.70% ᱦᱟᱛᱟᱣ ᱮᱫᱟ᱾
ᱥᱤᱢᱩᱞᱮᱴᱚᱨ · ᱯᱟᱨᱚᱞᱤ
$1,000 ᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱯᱩᱸᱡᱤ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ 2,000 ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ᱾
ᱢᱩᱞ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ $10 · ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱥᱤᱢᱟᱹ $500 · ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ 100 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ
ᱠᱩᱠᱞᱤ ᱠᱚ
ᱚᱱᱟ ᱟᱹᱛᱷ ᱨᱮ ᱨᱚᱠᱷᱤᱭᱟ ᱡᱮ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱨᱮ ᱵᱤᱯᱚᱫ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱮᱢ ᱫᱟᱲᱮᱭᱟᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱠᱷᱚᱨᱚᱪ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱝ: ᱢᱤᱫ ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱨᱮ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱜᱮᱭᱟ᱾
ᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱛᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱛᱷᱤᱨ ᱡᱟᱭᱜᱟ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱠᱟᱹᱢᱤᱭ-ᱟ᱾ ᱯᱮ ᱫᱚ ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱛᱤ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱜ-ᱟ ᱪᱮᱫᱟᱜ ᱥᱮ ᱤᱱᱟᱹᱢ (7 ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴ) ᱛᱟᱹᱝᱜᱤ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱡᱩᱛ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱟᱹᱭᱩᱨᱚᱜ-ᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱦᱤᱴ ᱦᱟᱨ (11.5%) ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱟᱥᱟ ᱵᱟᱹᱱᱩᱜ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱱ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾
ᱞᱟᱸᱫᱟ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱠᱚᱢᱤᱠ
ᱡᱤᱛ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱫᱚᱦᱚ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣ ᱜᱮ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾
ᱯᱷᱮᱰᱟᱛ
- RouletteDoc. Roulette strategies overview.
- Roulette77. Strategy description and examples.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.