ᱵᱟᱲᱛᱤ · ᱥᱮᱪᱮᱫ · 7 ᱢᱤᱱᱤᱴ

ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱟᱨ ᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛ ᱥᱮᱪᱮᱫ

ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱟᱞᱜᱟ ᱛᱮ ᱵᱩᱡᱷᱟᱹᱣ ᱮᱢᱟ᱾ ᱱᱚᱰᱮ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱯᱮ ᱡᱩᱣᱟ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱩᱥᱠᱟᱹᱨ ᱵᱮᱜᱚᱨ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ ᱨᱮ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱵᱮᱵᱷᱟᱨ ᱫᱟᱲᱮᱭᱟᱜ-ᱟ᱾

ᱠᱷᱟᱴᱚ ᱛᱮᱞᱟ

ᱯᱮ ᱜᱮᱞ ᱮᱭᱟᱭ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ, ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱵᱷᱩᱜᱛᱟᱱ, ᱟᱡᱟᱫ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ, ᱵᱟᱰᱟᱭ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ ᱢᱟᱭᱱᱟᱥ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝ ᱟᱨ ᱦᱚᱲ ᱠᱚᱣᱟᱜ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱤᱛᱤᱦᱟᱹᱥ᱾ ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱫᱚ ᱥᱤᱠᱠᱟᱹ ᱥᱮ ᱯᱟᱥᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱮᱥ ᱛᱮ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝ, ᱣᱮᱨᱤᱭᱮᱱᱥᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛᱣᱮᱨᱤᱭᱮᱱᱥᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝ ᱜᱷᱮᱨᱟᱣ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱯᱟᱥᱱᱟᱣᱚᱜ-ᱟ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱟᱯᱲᱟᱣ᱾ ᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴ ᱚᱯ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ, ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱠᱚᱢ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ →, ᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱱᱤᱭᱚᱢᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱱᱤᱭᱚᱢᱯᱚᱨᱚᱠᱷ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱮᱞ ᱵᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟᱱ ᱟᱡᱟᱫ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝ ᱴᱷᱮᱱ ᱥᱮᱴᱮᱨᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ →, ᱡᱩᱣᱟᱲᱤᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ, ᱦᱟᱭᱯᱚᱛᱷᱤᱥᱤᱥ ᱯᱚᱨᱚᱠᱷ ᱟᱨ ᱡᱟᱱᱟᱢ ᱫᱤᱱ ᱥᱚᱢᱥᱭᱟ ᱵᱩᱡᱷᱟᱹᱣ ᱮᱫᱟ᱾

ᱱᱢᱩᱱᱟ ᱡᱟᱭᱜᱟ
37, ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ
ᱵᱩᱡᱷᱟᱹᱣ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ ᱵᱤᱪᱟᱨ
≥ 8
ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱥᱟᱭᱤᱴ ᱨᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱛᱤᱭᱟᱹᱨ
ᱯᱷᱨᱤ, ᱵᱽᱨᱟᱣᱡᱟᱨ ᱨᱮ
ᱡᱤᱨᱚ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ
EV = −1/37, ᱡᱟᱣᱨᱟ

ᱪᱮᱫᱟᱜ ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ

ᱥᱤᱠᱠᱟᱹ ᱨᱮ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱟᱨ ᱯᱟᱥᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱛᱩᱨᱩᱭ; ᱵᱟᱨᱭᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱡᱟᱱᱟᱢ ᱫᱤᱱ ᱥᱚᱢᱥᱭᱟᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛᱡᱟᱱᱟᱢ ᱫᱤᱱ ᱥᱚᱢᱥᱭᱟᱵᱟᱨ ᱦᱚᱲ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱡᱟᱱᱟᱢ ᱫᱤᱱ ᱦᱩᱭ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱦᱚᱲ ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱛᱤ, ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱮᱞ ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟ ᱦᱤᱡᱩᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ᱾ 37 ᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ 8 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱛᱮ ᱜᱮ ᱥᱚᱢᱥᱚᱢ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱮᱥ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱥᱮ ᱠᱟᱭ-ᱥᱠᱣᱮᱭᱟᱨ ᱯᱚᱨᱚᱠᱷᱞᱮᱵᱠᱟᱭ-ᱥᱠᱣᱮᱭᱟᱨ ᱯᱚᱨᱚᱠᱷᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ ᱦᱤᱴ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ n/37 ᱥᱟᱶ ᱛᱩᱞᱟᱹᱣ ᱥᱴᱮᱴᱤᱥᱴᱤᱠᱟᱞ ᱯᱚᱨᱚᱠᱷ᱾ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱭᱟᱥ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ ᱥᱮ ᱵᱟᱹᱱᱩᱜ-ᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟ ᱵᱤᱪᱟᱹᱨ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱵᱮᱵᱷᱟᱨᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱨᱚᱥ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱦᱩᱰᱤᱧ᱾ ᱛᱟᱥ ᱫᱷᱤᱨᱤ ᱨᱮ ᱩᱭᱦᱟᱹᱨ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱨᱮ 37 ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ, ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱵᱷᱩᱜᱛᱟᱱᱴᱟᱠᱟᱵᱷᱩᱜᱛᱟᱱᱡᱤᱛ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱨᱩᱣᱟᱹᱲᱟ, ᱨᱩᱣᱟᱹᱲ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱪᱮᱛᱟᱱ “X ᱨᱮ 1” ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱨᱚᱲᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱛᱮ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱛᱷᱟᱨ ᱦᱤᱥᱟᱹᱵ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ, ᱵᱮᱱᱟᱣ ᱛᱮ ᱟᱡᱟᱫ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ, ᱟᱨ ᱢᱤᱫᱴᱟᱹᱝ ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱵᱟᱲᱛᱤ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ ᱫᱟᱱᱟᱝ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ ᱦᱩᱰᱤᱧ ᱟᱨ ᱥᱮᱨᱢᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱟᱹᱪᱩᱨ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ ᱜᱮ᱾ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱥᱟᱭ ᱥᱮᱨᱢᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱚᱞ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱠᱚ ᱵᱤᱪᱟᱹᱨ ᱫᱟᱲᱮᱭᱟᱜ-ᱟ᱾

ᱥᱤᱠᱠᱟᱹ, ᱯᱟᱥᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱛᱟᱥ ᱫᱚ ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ 37 ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱠᱚ ᱴᱷᱟᱶ ᱮᱢᱟ᱾

ᱠᱟᱭ-ᱥᱠᱣᱮᱭᱟᱨ ᱯᱚᱨᱚᱠᱷ

ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱛᱷᱟᱨ

ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣᱵᱤᱪᱟᱨᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱫᱟᱹᱭᱠᱟᱹᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱥᱟᱭᱤᱴ ᱨᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱛᱤᱭᱟᱹᱨ
1ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟp(ᱵᱟᱡᱤ) = n/37ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱚᱰᱥ ᱠᱮᱞᱠᱩᱞᱮᱴᱚᱨ
2ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝEV = (n/37)(36/n − 1) − (37 − n)/37 = −1/37ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱵᱮᱱᱟᱣᱤᱡ
3ᱟᱡᱟᱫ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱟᱨ ᱜᱩᱱᱟᱹ ᱱᱤᱭᱚᱢᱵᱟᱨ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ (18/37)²ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱨᱮ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ
4ᱩᱞᱴᱟᱹ ᱜᱷᱚᱴᱚᱱᱟ ᱟᱨ “ᱠᱚᱢ ᱥᱮ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ”1 − (36/37)³⁷ = 63.7%ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ
5ᱣᱮᱨᱤᱭᱮᱱᱥ ᱟᱨ ᱥᱴᱮᱱᱰᱟᱨᱰ ᱰᱤᱵᱷᱤᱭᱮᱥᱚᱱσ = 5.84 (ᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴ ᱚᱯ) ᱵᱤᱨᱩᱫᱽ 1.00 (ᱟᱨᱟᱜ), ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ EVᱣᱮᱨᱤᱭᱮᱱᱥ
6ᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱱᱤᱭᱚᱢ (ᱟᱨ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱵᱟᱭ ᱢᱮᱱᱟ)ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱥᱮᱴᱮᱨᱚᱜ-ᱟ; ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱦᱤᱥᱟᱹᱵ ᱥᱟᱦᱟᱭᱚᱜ-ᱟᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱚᱠᱛᱚ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱮᱴᱮᱨ
7ᱡᱩᱣᱟᱲᱤᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ26 ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ, 1913ᱡᱩᱣᱟᱲᱤᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ
8ᱵᱮᱵᱩᱡᱷ ᱫᱷᱟᱯ ᱟᱨ ᱯᱩᱸᱡᱤ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫᱡᱩᱣᱟᱲᱤᱭᱟᱜ ᱯᱩᱸᱡᱤ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫ ᱯᱷᱚᱨᱢᱩᱞᱟᱯᱩᱸᱡᱤ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫ ᱡᱚᱠᱷᱤᱢ ᱠᱮᱞᱠᱩᱞᱮᱴᱚᱨ
9ᱦᱟᱭᱯᱚᱛᱷᱤᱥᱤᱥ ᱯᱚᱨᱚᱠᱷ37 ᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱠᱟᱭ-ᱥᱠᱣᱮᱭᱟᱨᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱭᱟᱥ ᱡᱟᱸᱪᱤᱡ
10ᱡᱟᱱᱟᱢ ᱫᱤᱱ ᱥᱚᱢᱥᱭᱟ8 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱵᱷᱤᱛᱤᱨ ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟ ᱮᱞ, 56%ᱥᱚᱢᱥᱭᱟ: ᱡᱟᱱᱟᱢ ᱫᱤᱱ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ
11ᱢᱚᱱᱴᱮ ᱠᱟᱨᱞᱚ ᱥᱤᱢᱩᱞᱮᱥᱚᱱᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱮᱠᱮᱱᱰ ᱨᱮ 10,000 ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴᱮᱡᱤ ᱥᱤᱢᱩᱞᱮᱴᱚᱨ
12ᱥᱤᱥᱴᱮᱢ ᱠᱚ ᱪᱮᱫᱟᱜ ᱯᱷᱮᱞ ᱠᱚ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱮᱞᱮᱫ ᱱᱤᱭᱚᱢᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣ ᱫᱟᱲᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱯᱮ ᱥᱮ?

ᱡᱩᱣᱟ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱥᱮᱪᱮᱫ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ ᱥᱮᱪᱮᱫ

ᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱰᱮᱢᱳ ᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱵᱮᱵᱷᱟᱨ ᱯᱮ, ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱹᱱᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱚᱠᱛᱚ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ᱾ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱥᱟᱫᱷᱟᱨᱚᱱ ᱭᱩᱨᱚᱯᱤᱭᱟᱱ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱨᱮ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ −1/37᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱮᱛᱚᱦᱚᱵ ᱯᱮ ᱟᱨ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱛᱮ ᱨᱩᱣᱟᱹᱲ ᱯᱮ: ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱠᱟᱹᱢᱤ ᱫᱚ “ᱟᱨ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ −1/37 ᱠᱟᱱᱟ” ᱛᱮ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱥᱤᱥᱴᱮᱢ ᱠᱚ ᱦᱚᱨᱟ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱝ, ᱩᱞᱴᱟᱹ ᱫᱟᱹᱭᱠᱟᱹ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱵᱮᱵᱷᱟᱨ ᱯᱮ: ᱠᱟᱹᱢᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ ᱧᱟᱢ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱥᱤᱢᱩᱞᱮᱴᱚᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱜᱮ ᱥᱮᱠᱮᱱᱰ ᱨᱮ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ ᱩᱫᱩᱜᱟ᱾ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣ ᱦᱚᱲ ᱠᱚᱣᱟᱜ ᱤᱛᱤᱦᱟᱹᱥ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱥᱮᱞᱮᱫ ᱯᱮ᱾ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ ᱫᱚ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ ᱡᱮ ᱦᱤᱥᱟᱹᱵ ᱡᱤᱛᱟᱹᱣᱟ, ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱤᱡᱣᱟᱯᱚᱱ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱩᱞᱴᱟᱹ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾

ᱠᱟᱹᱢᱤᱭᱟᱜ ᱠᱟᱹᱢᱤ

ᱪᱮᱞᱟ ᱠᱚ ᱞᱟᱦᱟ ᱠᱟᱛᱷᱟ ᱠᱚᱨᱟᱣ ᱦᱚᱪᱚ ᱯᱮ ᱡᱮ ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟ ᱮᱞ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱛᱤ, ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱰᱮᱢᱳ ᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱜᱮᱞ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱣ ᱯᱮ (ᱡᱟᱱᱟᱢ ᱫᱤᱱ ᱥᱚᱢᱥᱭᱟ)᱾ ᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴᱮᱡᱤ ᱮᱰᱤᱴᱚᱨ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫᱴᱟᱹᱝ “ᱥᱤᱥᱴᱮᱢ” ᱚᱞ ᱦᱚᱪᱚ ᱯᱮ ᱟᱨ 10,000 ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱣ ᱯᱮ (ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱮᱞᱮᱫ ᱱᱤᱭᱚᱢ)᱾ 1913 ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟᱢᱤᱫ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ, 0 ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 1 ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ 0% ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 100%᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱮᱞ: 1/37 = 2.70%᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱦᱤᱥᱟᱹᱵ ᱦᱚᱪᱚ ᱯᱮ, ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱢᱚᱱᱴᱮ ᱠᱟᱨᱞᱚ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱢᱚᱬᱮ ᱜᱮᱞ ᱥᱮᱨᱢᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱚᱠᱟ ᱥᱮᱫ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱱ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱦᱩᱭ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ (ᱢᱤᱫᱴᱟᱹᱝ ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱜᱷᱚᱴᱚᱱᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱜᱷᱚᱴᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱯᱷᱟᱨᱟᱠ)᱾ ᱢᱤᱫᱴᱟᱹᱝ ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱤᱛᱤᱦᱟᱹᱥ ᱨᱮ “ᱵᱟᱭᱟᱥ” ᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟᱥᱟᱡ ᱥᱟᱢᱟᱱᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟᱨᱚᱴᱚᱨ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ 37 ᱮᱞ ᱚᱞ ᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱢᱤᱫ᱾ ᱮᱴᱟᱜ ᱧᱩᱛᱩᱢ: ᱥᱞᱚᱴ, ᱠᱟᱯ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱧᱟᱢ ᱦᱚᱪᱚ ᱯᱮ, ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱰᱟᱴᱟ ᱦᱤᱞᱚᱲ ᱦᱚᱪᱚ ᱯᱮ (ᱟᱭᱢᱟ ᱛᱩᱞᱟᱹᱣ)᱾

ᱪᱮᱞᱟ ᱠᱚᱣᱟᱜ ᱢᱚᱱᱮ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱞᱚᱜᱚᱱ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ (ᱥᱟᱫᱷᱟᱨᱚᱱ ᱠᱞᱟᱥ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱵᱤᱨᱩᱫᱽ ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ)
ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟ ᱮᱞ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ: ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ≈ 19, ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ 8
8 ᱵᱤᱨᱩᱫᱽ 19
p(37 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱨᱮ ≥1 ᱦᱮᱡ): ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ 100%, ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ 63.7%
63.7% ᱵᱤᱨᱩᱫᱽ 100%
p(10 ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ): ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ “ᱠᱚᱢ”, ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ 48.65%
48.65%
ᱞᱟᱵᱷ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ, ᱢᱟᱨᱴᱤᱝᱜᱮᱞ: ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ≈ 95%, ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ ≈ 78%
78% ᱵᱤᱨᱩᱫᱽ 95%
ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ, ᱢᱟᱨᱴᱤᱝᱜᱮᱞ: ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ “ᱯᱚᱡᱤᱴᱤᱵᱷ”, ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ ᱢᱟᱭᱱᱟᱥ
ᱢᱟᱭᱱᱟᱥ
050100
ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱯᱷᱟᱨᱟᱠ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫᱴᱟᱹᱝ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫ ᱯᱷᱟᱨᱟᱠ ᱫᱚ ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱠᱚᱨᱥ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾

ᱪᱷᱟᱯᱟ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱤᱛᱤᱦᱟᱹᱥ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣᱥᱴᱮᱴᱤᱥᱴᱤᱠᱟᱞ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝ

ᱪᱮᱫᱟᱜ ᱩᱭᱦᱟᱹᱨ ᱨᱮ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱᱟ

ᱪᱮᱞᱟ ᱠᱚ 26 ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮᱵᱟᱡᱤᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ18 ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ᱾ ᱯᱷᱨᱮᱧᱪ ᱨᱮ: ᱱᱣᱟᱨ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ →, ᱡᱮᱜᱟᱨ (Jagger) ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱥᱤᱢᱩᱞᱮᱴᱚᱨ ᱡᱚᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱩᱱᱠᱩᱣᱟᱜ ᱥᱤᱥᱴᱮᱢ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱚᱠᱛᱚ ᱠᱚ ᱩᱭᱦᱟᱹᱨᱟ᱾ ᱵᱮᱵᱩᱡᱷ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱯᱚᱨᱤᱠᱷᱟ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱦᱤᱲᱤᱧᱚᱜ-ᱟ; ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱝ᱾ ᱱᱮᱛᱤᱠ ᱥᱤᱢᱟᱹ ᱫᱚ ᱯᱚᱨᱤᱥᱠᱟᱨ: ᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱵᱮᱵᱷᱟᱨ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱦᱤᱥᱟᱹᱵ ᱥᱮᱪᱮᱫ ᱯᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱠᱷᱟᱨᱟᱯ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱵᱮᱱᱟᱣᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱪᱮᱞᱟ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱛᱮ ᱡᱩᱣᱟ ᱠᱚ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱟ, ᱩᱱᱠᱩ ᱫᱚ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱥᱮ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱫᱟᱢ ᱫᱚ ᱠᱚ ᱵᱟᱰᱟᱭᱟ᱾

ᱧᱩᱛᱩᱢ ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱠᱚ

ᱠᱩᱠᱞᱤ ᱠᱚ

ᱤᱥᱠᱩᱞ ᱪᱮᱞᱟ ᱠᱚ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ ᱥᱮ?

ᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱟᱨ ᱯᱚᱨᱤᱥᱠᱟᱨ ᱛᱮ ᱢᱮᱱ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ ᱡᱮ ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱵᱟᱲᱛᱤᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱵᱟᱲᱛᱤᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱛᱮ ᱫᱚᱦᱚᱭ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ: ᱭᱩᱨᱚᱯᱤᱭᱟᱱ ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱨᱮ 2.70%᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱜᱮ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱟᱭᱢᱟ ᱥᱤᱞᱮᱵᱟᱥ ᱫᱚ ᱞᱟᱦᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱜᱮ ᱯᱟᱥᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱞᱚᱴᱟᱨᱤ ᱵᱮᱵᱷᱟᱨ ᱮᱫᱟ; ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱫᱚ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱨᱦᱚᱸ ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱨᱩᱯ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾

ᱢᱟᱥᱴᱟᱨ ᱚᱠᱟ ᱥᱟᱦᱴᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱮᱛᱚᱦᱚᱵ ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱛᱤ?

ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱵᱟᱲᱛᱤ, ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱰᱮᱢᱳ ᱠᱷᱮᱞ, ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴᱮᱡᱤ ᱥᱤᱢᱩᱞᱮᱴᱚᱨ᱾

ᱰᱮᱢᱳ ᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱫᱚ ᱠᱞᱟᱥ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱨᱩᱠᱷᱤᱭᱟᱹ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ ᱥᱮ?

ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ, ᱮᱠᱟᱣᱩᱱᱴ ᱟᱨ ᱚᱯᱟᱨᱮᱴᱚᱨ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱞᱤᱝᱠ ᱵᱟᱹᱱᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾

ᱞᱟᱸᱫᱟ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱠᱚᱢᱤᱠ

ᱯᱮ ᱜᱮᱞ ᱮᱭᱟᱭ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ, ᱢᱤᱫᱴᱟᱹᱝ ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱵᱟᱲᱛᱤ, ᱥᱮᱪᱮᱫ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱥᱟᱭ ᱥᱮᱨᱢᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ᱾

ᱯᱮ ᱜᱮᱞ ᱮᱭᱟᱭ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ, ᱢᱤᱫᱴᱟᱹᱝ ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱵᱟᱲᱛᱤ, ᱥᱮᱪᱮᱫ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱥᱟᱭ ᱥᱮᱨᱢᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ᱾

ᱯᱷᱮᱰᱟᱛ

  1. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, 3rd ed., 1968᱾ ᱡᱩᱣᱟᱲᱤᱭᱟᱜ ᱯᱩᱸᱡᱤ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫ, ᱪᱮᱯᱴᱟᱨ XIV᱾
  2. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010᱾ ᱪᱮᱯᱴᱟᱨ 13, ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ᱾
2026-09-28 ᱨᱮ ᱡᱟᱸᱪ ᱟᱠᱟᱱᱟᱢᱚᱰᱮᱞ: ᱭᱩᱨᱚᱯᱤᱭᱟᱱ, ᱥᱤᱝᱜᱚᱞ ᱡᱤᱨᱚᱦᱤᱥᱟᱹᱵ ᱦᱚᱨᱟ ↗ᱯᱷᱮᱰᱟᱛ ↗