ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱨᱮ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ
ᱢᱤᱫ ᱨᱚᱝ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱥᱟᱫᱷᱟᱨᱚᱬ ᱠᱟᱛᱷᱟ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ ᱫᱟᱨᱟᱭ ᱛᱮ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱢᱟᱱᱮ ᱵᱟᱹᱱᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱢᱚᱬᱮ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ: 2.7%᱾ ᱜᱮᱞ: 0.074%᱾ 200 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱨᱚᱝ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱛᱩᱨᱩᱭ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱫᱷᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱩᱫᱩᱜᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱥᱟᱦᱟᱣ ᱦᱤᱡᱩᱜ-ᱟ
ᱥᱤᱝᱜᱚᱞ ᱡᱤᱨᱚ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱫᱚ 37 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱨᱮ 19 ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱛᱷᱟᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ ᱮᱫᱟ ᱡᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱜᱟᱱ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱪᱮᱫ, ᱟᱨ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱠᱟᱫ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱢᱟᱨᱴᱤᱝᱜᱮᱞ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣ ᱟᱠᱟᱫᱟᱭ᱾
| ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ | ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ | ᱢᱚᱴᱟ ᱢᱩᱴᱤ 1 / | ᱱᱤᱛᱚᱜ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ | ᱫᱟᱨᱟᱭ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $4 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $15 | $16 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $31 | $32 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $63 | $64 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $127 | $128 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $255 | $256 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $511 | $512 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $1,023 | $1,024 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $2,047 | $2,048 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $4,095 | $4,096 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $8,191 | $8,192 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $16,383 | $16,384 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $32,767 | $32,768 |
ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ 19/37 ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱢᱤᱫ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱨᱮ ᱟᱡ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱜᱩᱱ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ, ᱢᱤᱫ ᱛᱷᱤᱨ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ ᱟᱭᱢᱟ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱱ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱮᱦᱚᱵ ᱫᱟᱲᱮᱭᱟᱜ-ᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱟᱭᱩᱵ ᱨᱮ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱛᱷᱟᱨ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱦᱩᱭ ᱫᱟᱲᱮᱭᱟᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱢᱤᱫ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ
ᱫᱟᱨᱟᱭ ᱛᱮ k ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱟᱨᱟᱜᱵᱟᱡᱤᱟᱨᱟᱜ18 ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ᱾ ᱯᱷᱨᱮᱧᱪ ᱨᱮ: ᱨᱩᱡᱽ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟᱢᱤᱫ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ, 0 ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 1 ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ 0% ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 100%᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱮᱞ: 1/37 = 2.70%᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱫᱚ (18/37)ᵏ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ ᱵᱟᱨ: 23.7%᱾ ᱢᱚᱬᱮ: 2.7%᱾ ᱜᱮᱞ: 0.074%, ᱠᱚᱢ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ 1,350 ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 1᱾ ᱵᱤᱥ: 1.8 ᱢᱤᱞᱤᱭᱚᱱ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 1᱾ ᱵᱤᱥ ᱛᱩᱨᱩᱭ, ᱢᱚᱱᱴᱮ ᱠᱟᱨᱞᱚ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱨᱮᱠᱚᱨᱰ: 137 ᱢᱤᱞᱤᱭᱚᱱ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 1᱾ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱠᱚ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱮᱦᱚᱵ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱠᱩᱠᱞᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱭ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ ᱛᱮ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱠᱩᱠᱞᱤᱭᱟ᱾
ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ
ᱦᱚᱲ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱠᱩᱠᱞᱤ ᱠᱚ ᱢᱮᱱ ᱥᱮᱱ ᱮᱫᱟ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ “ᱤᱧᱟᱜ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱴᱷᱮᱱ ᱦᱚᱸ k ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱩᱫᱩᱜᱚᱜ-ᱟ ᱥᱮ?” ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱛᱮᱞᱟ ᱫᱚ (18/37)ᵏ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ, ᱪᱮᱫᱟᱜ ᱥᱮ 200 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱮᱦᱚᱵ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ 200 ᱴᱷᱟᱶ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱨᱚᱝ, ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮᱵᱟᱡᱤᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ18 ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ᱾ ᱯᱷᱨᱮᱧᱪ ᱨᱮ: ᱱᱣᱟᱨ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ →, ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱛᱩᱨᱩᱭ ᱥᱮ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱫᱚ 200 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ 94% ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱩᱫᱩᱜᱚᱜ-ᱟ; ᱤᱨᱟᱹᱞ ᱥᱮ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ 47%; ᱜᱮᱞ ᱥᱮ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ 14%᱾ ᱨᱚᱝ ᱞᱟᱦᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱧᱩᱛᱩᱢ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟᱱ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱠᱚᱢᱚᱜ-ᱟ, ᱠᱚᱢ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ 75%, 27% ᱟᱨ 7% ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ᱾ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱧᱤᱫᱟᱹ ᱫᱚᱦᱚ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱟ, ᱩᱱᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱧᱤᱫᱟᱹ ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱮ ᱧᱮᱞᱟ᱾
ᱢᱟᱨᱴᱤᱝᱜᱮᱞ ᱪᱮᱫᱟᱜ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱟᱹᱛᱩᱨ ᱮᱫᱟ
ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱱᱮᱜᱮᱴᱤᱵᱷ ᱯᱨᱚᱜᱽᱨᱮᱥᱚᱱᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴᱮᱡᱤᱯᱨᱚᱜᱽᱨᱮᱥᱚᱱᱢᱟᱨᱮ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱛᱮ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱚᱫᱚᱞ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱱᱤᱭᱚᱢ᱾ ᱱᱮᱜᱮᱴᱤᱵᱷ ᱯᱨᱚᱜᱽᱨᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱵᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣᱟ, ᱯᱚᱡᱤᱴᱤᱵᱷ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱫᱚ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱟᱹᱯᱩᱫ ᱮᱫᱟ: $500 ᱥᱤᱢᱟᱹ ᱨᱮ $10 ᱵᱮᱥ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱛᱩᱨᱩᱭ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ, ᱯᱷᱤᱵᱚᱱᱟᱪᱤᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴᱮᱡᱤᱯᱷᱤᱵᱚᱱᱟᱪᱤ1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13… ᱥᱤᱨᱤᱡᱽ ᱯᱟᱧᱡᱟ ᱯᱨᱚᱜᱽᱨᱮᱥᱚᱱ: ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱫᱷᱟᱯ ᱞᱟᱦᱟ, ᱡᱤᱛ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱫᱷᱟᱯ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱜᱮᱞ, ᱰᱚᱡᱮᱱᱵᱟᱡᱤᱰᱚᱡᱮᱱ1–12, 13–24 ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ 25–36, ᱵᱷᱩᱜᱛᱟᱱ 2:1᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱨᱮ ᱯᱮ ᱜᱩᱱ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱢᱚᱬᱮ᱾ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱛᱩᱨᱩᱭ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱪᱮᱥᱴᱟ ᱨᱮ (19/37)⁶ ≈ 1.8% ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱟᱨ 200 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ 100 ᱪᱮᱥᱴᱟ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱢᱚᱬᱮ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱯᱩᱱ ᱨᱮ ᱨᱟᱹᱯᱩᱫ ᱦᱮᱡᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱨᱮ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱛᱮ ᱜᱮ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱜᱟᱰᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱜᱟᱱ ᱜᱟᱱ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱜᱚᱨᱚᱢ ᱟᱨ ᱴᱷᱟᱸᱰᱟ ᱮᱞ
ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱦᱤᱥᱟᱹᱵ ᱫᱚ ᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴ ᱚᱯᱵᱟᱡᱤᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴ ᱚᱯᱢᱤᱫ ᱮᱞ, ᱵᱷᱩᱜᱛᱟᱱ 35:1᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱨᱮ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾ 300 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟ ᱫᱚ 8.1 ᱠᱟᱱᱟ; ᱥᱴᱮᱱᱰᱟᱨᱰ ᱰᱤᱵᱷᱤᱭᱮᱥᱚᱱᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛᱥᱴᱮᱱᱰᱟᱨᱰ ᱰᱤᱵᱷᱤᱭᱮᱥᱚᱱᱣᱮᱨᱤᱭᱮᱱᱥ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱚᱜᱚ ᱢᱩᱞ; ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱟᱫᱷᱟᱨᱚᱱ ᱥᱟᱦᱟ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱫᱚ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ 2.8 ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ ᱥᱩᱢᱩᱝ ᱥᱟᱹᱜᱩᱱ ᱛᱮ ᱜᱮ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱮᱞ 15 ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱟᱨ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ 2 ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱩᱫᱩᱜᱚᱜ-ᱟ, ᱥᱟᱵᱟᱫᱚ᱾ “ᱜᱚᱨᱚᱢ” ᱮᱞ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱵᱳᱨᱰ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱱᱚᱨᱢᱟᱞ ᱵᱟᱸᱴᱟᱣ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱪᱮᱛᱟᱱ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ ᱮᱫᱟ᱾ ᱞᱮᱵ ᱫᱚ ᱞᱟᱹᱭ ᱮᱫᱟ ᱡᱮ ᱜᱚᱨᱚᱢ ᱮᱞᱵᱷᱨᱚᱢᱜᱚᱨᱚᱢ ᱮᱞᱱᱤᱛᱚᱜ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱦᱤᱡᱩᱜ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ ᱮᱞ᱾ ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱞᱟᱦᱟ ᱠᱟᱛᱷᱟ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱮᱢᱟ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱨᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱢᱟᱱᱮ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱛᱤ (ᱦᱟᱡᱟᱨ ᱦᱟᱡᱟᱨ, ᱢᱤᱫ ᱪᱤᱱᱦᱟᱹᱣ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ)᱾
ᱟᱡᱟᱫ ᱜᱮ ᱜᱚᱴᱟ ᱠᱟᱛᱷᱟ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ
ᱜᱮᱞ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱵᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ ᱮᱫᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱵᱟᱝ᱾ ᱵᱟᱨᱭᱟ ᱜᱮ 18/37 ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱮᱜᱚᱨ ᱫᱷᱟᱨᱟ ᱞᱟᱹᱲᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱜᱩᱱ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱵᱟᱹᱱᱩᱜ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟᱱ ᱜᱮ ᱥᱚᱱᱫᱮᱦ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ: ᱯᱩᱱ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱵᱟᱹᱱᱩᱜ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ 200 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱞᱟᱹᱲᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱜᱮᱞ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ ᱞᱟᱹᱲᱤ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱠ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱟᱵᱩᱫ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱᱟ᱾
ᱯᱷᱚᱨᱢᱩᱞᱟ
ᱠᱩᱠᱞᱤ ᱠᱚ
18 ᱟᱜᱚᱥᱴ 1913 ᱨᱮ ᱢᱚᱱᱴᱮ ᱠᱟᱨᱞᱚ ᱨᱮ 26 ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ ᱫᱚ ᱧᱩᱛᱩᱢ ᱟᱱ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ 1943 ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱟᱢᱮᱨᱤᱠᱟᱱ ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱨᱮ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ 32 ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱠᱟᱛᱷᱟ ᱞᱟᱹᱭ ᱞᱮᱱᱟ᱾ ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱠᱚ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱠᱚ ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱣᱟ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ ᱵᱟᱨᱭᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱥᱟᱹᱜᱩᱱ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱢᱤᱞᱟᱹᱣ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾
ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱦᱚᱨ ᱛᱮ ᱦᱚᱸ 18/37 ᱜᱮ᱾ ᱟᱯᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱯᱞᱟᱱ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱢᱮᱱᱮᱫᱟ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣ ᱯᱮ, ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱨᱮ ᱵᱟᱝ᱾
ᱵᱟᱝ᱾ ᱵᱟᱭᱟᱥ ᱫᱚ ᱦᱟᱡᱟᱨ ᱦᱟᱡᱟᱨ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱨᱮ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟᱥᱟᱡ ᱥᱟᱢᱟᱱᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟᱨᱚᱴᱚᱨ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ 37 ᱮᱞ ᱚᱞ ᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱢᱤᱫ᱾ ᱮᱴᱟᱜ ᱧᱩᱛᱩᱢ: ᱥᱞᱚᱴ, ᱠᱟᱯ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱩᱫᱩᱜᱚᱜ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱧᱮᱞᱚᱜ-ᱟ, ᱨᱚᱝ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱝ᱾
ᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱨᱟᱹᱥᱠᱟᱹ
ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱠᱚ ᱯᱩᱭᱞᱩ ᱟᱯᱮ ᱛᱮ ᱠᱩᱨᱩᱢᱩᱴᱩ ᱯᱮ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱫᱷᱟᱱ ᱫᱚ ᱩᱠᱩ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ; ᱛᱮᱭᱟᱨ ᱦᱩᱭ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ ᱡᱷᱤᱡᱽ ᱯᱮ᱾
ᱭᱩᱨᱚᱯᱤᱭᱟᱱ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ 37 ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱮᱞ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱥᱮ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱩᱪᱟᱹᱲ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱛᱮ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱛᱤᱭᱟ?
ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱫᱷᱟᱱ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ
ᱛᱮᱞᱟ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱛᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱱ 155 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ; ᱛᱟᱞᱟ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝ (ᱢᱤᱰᱤᱭᱟᱱ) ᱫᱚ 147᱾
ᱛᱟᱹᱝᱜᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱱᱟᱣᱟ ᱮᱞ ᱛᱮ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟ ᱯᱮ᱾ ᱯᱟᱦᱤᱞ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱚᱠᱛᱚ ᱱᱟᱣᱟ ᱮᱞ ᱩᱫᱩᱜᱟ᱾ 1 ᱮᱞ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ, 37 ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 36 ᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟᱥᱟᱡ ᱥᱟᱢᱟᱱᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟᱨᱚᱴᱚᱨ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ 37 ᱮᱞ ᱚᱞ ᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱢᱤᱫ᱾ ᱮᱴᱟᱜ ᱧᱩᱛᱩᱢ: ᱥᱞᱚᱴ, ᱠᱟᱯ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱱᱟᱣᱟ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱫᱟᱨᱟᱭ ᱱᱟᱣᱟ ᱮᱞ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱛᱮ 37/36 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱛᱤᱭᱟ᱾ k ᱮᱞ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ, 37/(37 − k) ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱛᱤᱭᱟ᱾
ᱛᱟᱹᱝᱜᱤ ᱠᱚ ᱡᱚᱲᱟᱣ ᱯᱮ: 37/37 + 37/36 + 37/35 + … + 37/1 = 37 × (1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + … + 1/37) ≈ 37 × 4.20 = 155.5 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ᱾
ᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫ ᱨᱮ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫ ᱮᱞ ᱮᱠᱮᱞ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱛᱮ 37 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱛᱤᱭᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫ ᱢᱚᱬᱮ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱱ 85᱾ ᱟᱢᱮᱨᱤᱠᱟᱱ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱡᱚᱲᱟᱣ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱱ 161 ᱮ ᱮᱢᱟ᱾ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱠᱩᱯᱚᱱ ᱡᱟᱣᱨᱟ ᱥᱚᱢᱥᱭᱟ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ; ᱥᱟᱫᱷᱟᱨᱚᱬ ᱦᱤᱥᱟᱹᱵ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱧᱟᱢᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱭᱩᱨᱚᱯᱤᱭᱟᱱ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ 37 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱨᱮ, ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ, ᱟᱯᱮ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱵᱷᱤᱱ ᱵᱷᱤᱱ ᱮᱞ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱫᱟᱲᱮᱭᱟᱜ-ᱟ ᱯᱮ?
ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱫᱷᱟᱱ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ
ᱛᱮᱞᱟ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱱ 23.6᱾ ᱮᱞ ᱠᱚᱣᱟᱜ ᱯᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ, ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱱ 13, ᱵᱟᱝ ᱩᱪᱟᱹᱲᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱢᱤᱫᱴᱟᱹᱝ ᱮᱞ ᱦᱟᱛᱟᱣ ᱯᱮ, ᱡᱮᱞᱠᱟ 17᱾ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱨᱮ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱩᱪᱟᱹᱲ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ 36/37, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ 37 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱨᱮ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱩᱪᱟᱹᱲ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ (36/37)³⁷ ≈ 0.363᱾
ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱛᱮ 37 × 0.363 ≈ 13.4 ᱮᱞ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱩᱪᱟᱹᱲᱚᱜ-ᱟ ᱟᱨ 37 − 13.4 ≈ 23.6 ᱩᱪᱟᱹᱲᱚᱜ-ᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱟᱭᱢᱟ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱥᱮ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ᱾
ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱠᱚ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱯᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱱᱤᱭᱚᱢ ᱠᱚ ᱢᱮᱱᱟ᱾ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱱᱤᱭᱚᱢ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟ ᱩᱪᱟᱹᱲ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱦᱤᱥᱟᱹᱵ ᱜᱮ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ: ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱨᱮ ᱮᱞ ᱠᱚᱣᱟᱜ ᱯᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱩᱪᱟᱹᱲᱚᱜ-ᱟ, ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱮᱴᱟᱜ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱜᱮ᱾ 38 ᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱫᱚ (37/38)³⁸ ≈ 0.363; ᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ 1/e ≈ 0.368 ᱥᱮᱫ ᱛᱤᱝᱜᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱢᱤᱫ ᱜᱟᱛᱮ ᱟᱯᱮ ᱴᱷᱮᱱ 50 ᱨᱚᱝ, ᱟᱨᱟᱜᱵᱟᱡᱤᱟᱨᱟᱜ18 ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ᱾ ᱯᱷᱨᱮᱧᱪ ᱨᱮ: ᱨᱩᱡᱽ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱥᱮ ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮᱵᱟᱡᱤᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ18 ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ᱾ ᱯᱷᱨᱮᱧᱪ ᱨᱮ: ᱱᱣᱟᱨ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ →, ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱟᱨᱴᱟᱹᱝ ᱛᱟᱹᱞᱤᱠᱟᱹ ᱮ ᱩᱫᱩᱜᱟ, ᱵᱟᱨᱭᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱡᱤᱨᱚᱪᱟᱠᱟᱡᱤᱨᱚᱢᱤᱫᱜᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱨᱭᱟᱹᱲ ᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ, ᱰᱚᱡᱮᱱ ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱠᱚᱞᱚᱢ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱵᱟᱭ ᱠᱚᱵᱷᱟᱨᱟ; ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱵᱟᱲᱛᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱢᱩᱞ᱾ ᱮᱴᱟᱜ ᱧᱩᱛᱩᱢ: ᱥᱤᱝᱜᱚᱞ ᱡᱤᱨᱚ, 0᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱵᱟᱹᱜᱤ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱦᱟᱦᱟᱲ ᱢᱮᱱᱛᱮ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫᱴᱟᱹᱝ ᱨᱮ ᱨᱚᱝ 25 ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱵᱚᱫᱚᱞᱚᱜ-ᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱛᱩᱨᱩᱭ᱾ ᱮᱴᱟᱜ ᱨᱮ 35 ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱵᱚᱫᱚᱞᱚᱜ-ᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱚᱠᱛᱚ ᱯᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱜᱮ᱾ ᱚᱠᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱮᱱᱟᱣ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ?
ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱫᱷᱟᱱ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ
ᱛᱮᱞᱟ ᱫᱚᱥᱟᱨ ᱫᱚ᱾ ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ ᱛᱟᱹᱞᱤᱠᱟᱹ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱱ 24 ᱥᱮ 25 ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱵᱚᱫᱚᱞᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ 35 ᱵᱚᱫᱚᱞ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ ᱛᱟᱹᱞᱤᱠᱟᱹ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱱ 500 ᱛᱟᱹᱞᱤᱠᱟᱹ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱧᱟᱢᱚᱜ-ᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱯᱮ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱵᱟᱹᱱᱩᱜ ᱛᱟᱹᱞᱤᱠᱟᱹ ᱫᱚ 100 ᱨᱮ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ᱾
ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱱᱟᱣᱟ ᱨᱚᱝ ᱫᱚ ᱞᱟᱦᱟ ᱨᱚᱝ ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟᱭᱟ ᱥᱮ ᱵᱚᱫᱚᱞᱚᱜ-ᱟ, ᱟᱫᱷᱟ ᱟᱫᱷᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ 49 ᱵᱚᱫᱚᱞ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱦᱚᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱛᱮ 24.5 ᱵᱚᱫᱚᱞ ᱮᱢᱟ, ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱱ 3.5 ᱠᱚᱢ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ᱾ ᱤᱥᱤ ᱜᱮᱞ ᱢᱚᱬᱮ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱱ ᱯᱮ ᱫᱷᱟᱯ ᱪᱮᱛᱟᱱ ᱨᱮ; ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱚᱛᱠᱟ ᱵᱚᱫᱚᱞ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱱ 500 ᱛᱟᱹᱞᱤᱠᱟᱹ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱮ ᱵᱮᱱᱟᱣᱟ᱾
ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱠᱚ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱠᱚ ᱢᱮᱱᱟ᱾ 50 ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ ᱛᱟᱹᱞᱤᱠᱟᱹ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱱ 98% ᱚᱠᱛᱚ ᱯᱩᱱ ᱥᱮ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱟᱭᱢᱟ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱢᱚᱬᱮ ᱥᱮ ᱛᱩᱨᱩᱭ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱦᱚᱲ ᱠᱚ ᱵᱮᱱᱟᱣ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ ᱵᱮᱵᱷᱟᱨ ᱛᱟᱹᱞᱤᱠᱟᱹ ᱚᱞ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱠᱚ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ ᱠᱚᱣᱟ, ᱩᱱᱠᱩ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱵᱚᱫᱚᱞ ᱠᱚ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣᱟ, ᱪᱮᱫᱟᱜ ᱥᱮ ᱯᱩᱱ ᱥᱮ ᱢᱚᱬᱮ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱩᱱᱠᱩ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱫᱚ ᱫᱷᱟᱸᱪ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱧᱮᱞᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱴᱮᱞᱟᱨ (Taylor, 2021) ᱵᱤᱫᱭᱟᱹᱨᱛᱷᱤ ᱠᱚ ᱵᱮᱱᱟᱣ ᱠᱟᱫ ᱠᱚᱭᱮᱱ ᱴᱚᱥ ᱛᱟᱹᱞᱤᱠᱟᱹ ᱨᱮ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱪᱤᱱᱦᱟᱹ ᱮ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ ᱟᱠᱟᱫᱟ: ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ ᱵᱮᱵᱷᱟᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱦᱚᱲ ᱠᱚᱣᱟᱜ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱮ ᱵᱮᱱᱟᱣᱟ᱾
ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱠᱟᱦᱱᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱯᱩᱛᱷᱤ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱠᱟᱛᱷᱟ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱜ ᱮᱞ ᱢᱚᱬᱮ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱩᱪᱟᱹᱲᱞᱮᱱᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱯᱩᱛᱷᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱮᱠᱚᱨᱰ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱭ᱾ ᱭᱩᱨᱚᱯᱤᱭᱟᱱ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ? ᱟᱨ 20 ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱨᱮ, ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱜᱷᱟᱸᱴᱟ ᱨᱮ 40 ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣᱚᱜ-ᱟ, ᱧᱤᱫᱟᱹ ᱢᱟᱦᱟᱸ, ᱚᱱᱟ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱛᱤᱭᱟ?
ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱫᱷᱟᱱ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ
ᱛᱮᱞᱟ ᱢᱟᱲᱟᱝ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱧᱩᱛᱩᱢ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ ᱮᱞ ᱢᱚᱬᱮ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ: 69 ᱢᱤᱞᱤᱭᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ 1᱾ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱮᱞ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱯᱟᱦᱤᱞ ᱩᱪᱟᱹᱲ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱟᱨᱦᱚᱸ ᱯᱩᱱ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ: 1.87 ᱢᱤᱞᱤᱭᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ 1᱾ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱮᱨᱢᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱱ 7 ᱢᱤᱞᱤᱭᱚᱱ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱥᱮᱨᱢᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱯᱮ ᱥᱮ ᱯᱩᱱ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱢᱚᱬᱮ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱛᱤᱭᱟ᱾
ᱧᱩᱛᱩᱢ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ ᱮᱞ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱨᱮ 1/37 ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱛᱮ ᱩᱪᱟᱹᱲᱚᱜ-ᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱢᱚᱬᱮ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ (1/37)⁵ = 69,343,957 ᱨᱮ 1᱾ ᱢᱮᱱᱠᱷᱟᱱ ᱮᱞ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱟᱹᱦᱟᱱᱟᱹᱭ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱢᱟᱲᱟᱝ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱧᱩᱛᱩᱢᱟ᱾ ᱯᱟᱦᱤᱞ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱩᱪᱟᱹᱲᱚᱜ-ᱟ, ᱫᱟᱨᱟᱭ ᱯᱩᱱ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱫᱚ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟ ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱛᱤᱭᱟ: (1/37)⁴ = 1,874,161 ᱨᱮ 1᱾
20 ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ × 40 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ × 24 ᱜᱷᱟᱸᱴᱟ × 365 ᱫᱤᱱ = ᱥᱮᱨᱢᱟ ᱨᱮ 7,008,000 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ᱾ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱮᱦᱚᱵ ᱫᱟᱲᱮᱭᱟᱜ-ᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱥᱮᱨᱢᱟ ᱨᱮ 7,008,000/1,874,161 ≈ 3.7 ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱢᱚᱬᱮ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱫᱟᱲᱮᱭᱟᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱱ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱥᱚᱨᱠᱟᱨᱤ ᱨᱮᱠᱚᱨᱰ ᱵᱟᱹᱱᱩᱜ-ᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱛᱤ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱵᱟᱹᱱᱩᱜ-ᱟ: ᱢᱤᱫ ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ ᱜᱷᱚᱴᱚᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱜᱚᱴᱟ ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱟᱫᱷᱟᱨᱚᱬ ᱜᱷᱚᱴᱚᱱᱟ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱠᱟᱦᱱᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱦᱩᱭᱞᱮᱱᱟ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱵᱟᱵᱚᱛ ᱜᱮ ᱞᱟᱹᱭᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱜᱚᱞᱰᱢᱟᱱ (Goldman, 2007) ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱠᱟᱦᱱᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱰᱚᱵᱚᱞ ᱡᱤᱨᱚ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱚᱱᱰᱮ ᱮᱞ ᱠᱚ ᱫᱚ 79 ᱢᱤᱞᱤᱭᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ 1 ᱟᱨ 2.09 ᱢᱤᱞᱤᱭᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ 1᱾
ᱞᱟᱸᱫᱟ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱠᱚᱢᱤᱠ
ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱮᱜᱚᱨ ᱫᱷᱟᱨᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱜᱮ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾
ᱯᱷᱮᱰᱟᱛ
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.