ᱡᱩᱣᱟᱲᱤᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ
ᱢᱤᱫ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱚᱠᱛᱚ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ ᱞᱮᱱ ᱛᱮ “ᱦᱮᱡ ᱦᱚᱨ” ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱵᱤᱥᱣᱟᱥ᱾
ᱜᱮᱞ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ 18/37 ᱜᱮ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱᱟ᱾ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱦᱤᱥᱟᱹᱵ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱫᱚᱦᱚᱭ ᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱨᱤᱱ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱦᱟᱛᱟᱣ ᱟᱠᱟᱫᱟ᱾
ᱵᱷᱩᱞ
ᱡᱩᱫᱤ ᱟᱨᱟᱜᱵᱟᱡᱤᱟᱨᱟᱜ18 ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ᱾ ᱯᱷᱨᱮᱧᱪ ᱨᱮ: ᱨᱩᱡᱽ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱜᱮᱞ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ ᱟᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱟᱭᱢᱟ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱠᱚ ᱵᱩᱡᱷᱟᱹᱣ ᱮᱫᱟ ᱡᱮ ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮᱵᱟᱡᱤᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ18 ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ᱾ ᱯᱷᱨᱮᱧᱪ ᱨᱮ: ᱱᱣᱟᱨ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱫᱚ “ᱦᱮᱡ ᱦᱚᱨ” ᱠᱟᱱᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱠᱚ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣᱟ᱾ ᱮᱴᱟᱜ ᱠᱚ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ “ᱜᱚᱨᱚᱢ” ᱠᱟᱱᱟ ᱢᱮᱱᱛᱮ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱠᱚ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣᱟ᱾ ᱵᱟᱨᱭᱟ ᱜᱟᱫᱮᱞ ᱜᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ ᱞᱟᱹᱲᱤ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱦᱩᱭ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱪᱮᱛᱟᱱ ᱵᱤᱪᱟᱹᱨ ᱠᱚ ᱠᱚᱨᱟᱣ ᱮᱫᱟ᱾ ᱵᱚᱞᱥᱟᱡ ᱥᱟᱢᱟᱱᱵᱚᱞᱨᱚᱴᱚᱨ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱩᱞᱴᱟᱹ ᱥᱮᱫ ᱴᱨᱮᱠ ᱨᱮ ᱜᱤᱰᱤ ᱦᱩᱰᱤᱧ ᱵᱚᱞ᱾ ᱱᱤᱛᱚᱜᱟᱜ ᱵᱚᱞ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱭᱣᱚᱨᱤᱱ ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱴᱮᱯᱷᱞᱚᱱ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ, 18–21 mm᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱫᱚ ᱢᱟᱨᱮ ᱜᱮᱞ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱵᱟᱰᱟᱭᱟ; ᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟᱥᱟᱡ ᱥᱟᱢᱟᱱᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟᱨᱚᱴᱚᱨ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ 37 ᱮᱞ ᱚᱞ ᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱢᱤᱫ᱾ ᱮᱴᱟᱜ ᱧᱩᱛᱩᱢ: ᱥᱞᱚᱴ, ᱠᱟᱯ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱠᱚ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱜᱷᱟᱸᱴᱟ ᱞᱟᱦᱟ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱢᱟᱯ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ; ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟᱢᱤᱫ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ, 0 ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 1 ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ 0% ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 100%᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱮᱞ: 1/37 = 2.70%᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱫᱚ ᱥᱟᱵᱟᱫᱚ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ 18/37 ᱜᱮ᱾
ᱪᱮᱫᱟᱜ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱵᱩᱡᱷᱟᱹᱣᱚᱜ-ᱟ
ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱚᱠᱛᱚ ᱨᱮ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱟᱨ ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱫᱚ ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ ᱜᱮ ᱢᱤᱫᱢᱤᱫ 18/37 ᱫᱤᱥᱟᱹ ᱥᱮᱴᱮᱨᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱱᱤᱭᱚᱢᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱱᱤᱭᱚᱢᱯᱚᱨᱚᱠᱷ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱮᱞ ᱵᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟᱱ ᱟᱡᱟᱫ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝ ᱴᱷᱮᱱ ᱥᱮᱴᱮᱨᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱡᱟᱢᱤᱱ ᱮᱢ ᱮᱫᱟ᱾ ᱢᱮᱱᱠᱷᱟᱱ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱥᱮᱴᱮᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱟᱹᱣ ᱛᱮ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ, ᱥᱩᱫᱷᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱛᱮ ᱵᱟᱝ: ᱟᱨᱦᱚᱸ 1,000 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱜᱮᱞ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱫᱚ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱦᱩᱰᱤᱧ ᱜᱚᱞ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱᱟ, ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ ᱥᱟᱵ ᱞᱮᱱ ᱛᱮ ᱵᱟᱝ, ᱱᱢᱩᱱᱟ ᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ ᱞᱮᱱ ᱛᱮ᱾ ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱵᱮᱱᱟᱣ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱠᱚᱞ ᱵᱟᱹᱱᱩᱜ-ᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱱᱤᱭᱚᱢ ᱨᱮ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱛᱤᱭᱟ᱾
ᱢᱚᱱᱴᱮ ᱠᱟᱨᱞᱚ, 18 ᱟᱜᱚᱥᱴ 1913
ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱫᱮ ᱢᱚᱱᱴᱮ-ᱠᱟᱨᱞᱚ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ 26 ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ ᱞᱮᱱᱟ᱾ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱜᱮᱞ ᱢᱚᱬᱮ ᱥᱟᱭ ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ, ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱠᱚ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱨᱮ ᱫᱷᱮᱨ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱠᱚ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ, ᱵᱟᱨ ᱜᱩᱱ ᱟᱨ ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱜᱩᱱ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ, ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱢᱟᱨᱮ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ “ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ”᱾ ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱞᱤᱭᱚᱱ ᱢᱤᱞᱤᱭᱚᱱ ᱯᱷᱨᱟᱸ ᱮ ᱡᱤᱛᱟᱹᱣ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ᱾ ᱯᱟᱦᱤᱞ ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ 137 ᱢᱤᱞᱤᱭᱚᱱ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 1 ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱫᱤᱥᱚᱢ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱴᱷᱮᱱ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱫᱤᱱ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱜᱮ ᱡᱩᱣᱟᱲᱤᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱚᱱᱴᱮ ᱠᱟᱨᱞᱚ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱢᱮᱱᱟ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾
ᱵᱤᱥᱮᱥ ᱵᱟᱝ᱾ 44 ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱠᱚ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱮᱦᱚᱵ ᱮᱫᱟ᱾ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱫᱚ “ᱦᱮᱡ ᱦᱚᱨ”᱾
ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱫᱷᱮᱨ ᱦᱚᱲ᱾ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱨᱮ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱜᱩᱱ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱫᱷᱚᱱ ᱫᱟᱣᱞᱚᱛ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣ᱾ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱱᱟᱣᱟ ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ ᱛᱮ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱵᱩᱡᱷᱟᱹᱣᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱞᱤᱭᱚᱱ ᱢᱤᱞᱤᱭᱚᱱ ᱯᱷᱨᱟᱸ ᱮ ᱡᱤᱛᱟᱹᱣ ᱠᱮᱫᱟ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱦᱚᱲ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱠᱚ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱵᱤᱨᱩᱫᱷ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱠᱚ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ, ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱡ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ ᱚᱱᱟ “ᱵᱟᱰᱟᱭ” ᱵᱟᱝ ᱫᱟᱲᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱᱟ᱾
ᱜᱚᱨᱚᱢ ᱛᱤ
ᱢᱤᱫ ᱨᱚᱝ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ ᱢᱮᱱᱛᱮ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣ ᱫᱚ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ ᱩᱞᱴᱟᱹ ᱦᱚᱨ ᱛᱮ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ: ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫ ᱵᱚᱫᱚᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱞᱟᱦᱟᱜ ᱥᱮᱱ ᱟᱥᱟ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱢᱚᱱ ᱵᱤᱜᱭᱟᱱᱤ ᱠᱚ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱜᱚᱨᱚᱢ ᱛᱤᱵᱷᱨᱚᱢᱜᱚᱨᱚᱢ ᱛᱤᱡᱤᱛ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱮᱴᱟᱜ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱵᱮᱱᱟᱣᱟ, ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱵᱤᱥᱣᱟᱥ᱾ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱩᱞᱴᱟᱹ ᱜᱚᱴᱚᱱ ᱡᱩᱣᱟᱲᱤᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱢᱮᱱᱛᱮ ᱠᱚ ᱢᱮᱱᱟ, ᱡᱤᱞᱚᱣᱤᱪ, ᱣᱟᱞᱚᱱᱮ ᱟᱨ ᱴᱣᱮᱨᱥᱠᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ 1985 ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ, ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱥᱠᱮᱴᱵᱚᱞ ᱥᱩᱴᱤᱝ ᱨᱮ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱠᱚ ᱥᱮᱸᱫᱽᱨᱟ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱥᱟᱹᱜᱩᱱ ᱵᱟᱦᱨᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱧᱟᱢ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ᱾ 2018 ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱞᱟᱨ ᱟᱨ ᱥᱟᱱᱦᱩᱨᱡᱳ ᱫᱚ ᱠᱤᱱ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ ᱡᱮ ᱯᱚᱨᱚᱠᱷ ᱜᱮ ᱛᱮᱨᱪᱷᱟ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ: ᱢᱤᱫ ᱦᱩᱰᱤᱧ ᱨᱮᱠᱚᱨᱰ ᱨᱮ, ᱡᱤᱛ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱛᱮ ᱥᱩᱴᱟᱨ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱦᱟᱨ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱜᱚᱨᱚᱢ ᱛᱤ ᱵᱟᱹᱱᱩᱜ-ᱟ, ᱩᱱᱤ ᱦᱩᱰᱤᱧ ᱴᱷᱟᱸᱰᱟ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱧᱮᱞᱚᱜ-ᱟᱭ᱾ ᱥᱩᱫᱷᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ, ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱰᱟᱴᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱦᱩᱰᱤᱧ ᱜᱚᱨᱚᱢ ᱛᱤ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ ᱮᱫᱟ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱦᱚᱲ ᱫᱚ ᱜᱚᱨᱚᱢ ᱫᱟᱲᱮᱭᱟᱜ-ᱟᱭ; ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱫᱚᱥᱟ ᱵᱟᱹᱱᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱨᱭᱟ ᱵᱤᱥᱣᱟᱥ ᱥᱟᱶᱛᱮ ᱠᱚ ᱫᱚᱦᱚᱭ ᱟ, ᱡᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ “ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ” ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱜ-ᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱮᱱᱠᱷᱟᱱ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱨᱩᱯ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱤᱠᱟᱹ ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱜ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ ᱨᱚᱝ ᱵᱟᱪᱷᱟᱣ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱱ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱚᱠᱛᱚ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ᱾ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱥᱟᱫᱷᱟᱨᱚᱱ ᱭᱩᱨᱚᱯᱤᱭᱟᱱ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱨᱮ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ −1/37᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ: ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ −2.70%᱾
ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱨᱮ
ᱠᱨᱚᱥᱚᱱ ᱟᱨ ᱥᱩᱱᱰᱟᱞᱤ (2005) ᱫᱚ ᱨᱤᱱᱳ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱰᱚᱵᱚᱞ ᱡᱤᱨᱚᱪᱟᱠᱟᱡᱤᱨᱚᱢᱤᱫᱜᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱨᱭᱟᱹᱲ ᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ, ᱰᱚᱡᱮᱱ ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱠᱚᱞᱚᱢ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱵᱟᱭ ᱠᱚᱵᱷᱟᱨᱟ; ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱵᱟᱲᱛᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱢᱩᱞ᱾ ᱮᱴᱟᱜ ᱧᱩᱛᱩᱢ: ᱥᱤᱝᱜᱚᱞ ᱡᱤᱨᱚ, 0᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ 18 ᱜᱷᱟᱸᱴᱟ ᱨᱩᱠᱷᱤᱭᱟᱹ ᱣᱤᱰᱤᱭᱳ ᱠᱤᱱ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ: 139 ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱠᱚ 24,131 ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱠᱚ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ᱾ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤᱵᱟᱡᱤᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤᱟᱨᱟᱜ/ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ, ᱵᱤᱡᱳᱲ/ᱡᱳᱲ, ᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ/ᱦᱩᱰᱤᱧ᱾ 18 ᱮᱞ, ᱵᱷᱩᱜᱛᱟᱱ 1:1᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱨᱮ, ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱠᱚ ᱫᱚ ᱦᱩᱰᱤᱧ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱥᱮᱱ ᱟᱨ ᱵᱤᱨᱩᱫᱷ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱠᱚ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱢᱚᱬᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱱ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱠᱚ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱵᱤᱨᱩᱫᱷ ᱥᱮᱱ ᱠᱚ ᱞᱩᱠᱟᱹᱣ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱛᱩᱨᱩᱭ ᱥᱮ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱠᱚᱣᱟᱜ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ 85% ᱫᱚ ᱮᱴᱟᱜ ᱫᱷᱟᱨᱮ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱠᱚ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱡ ᱵᱟᱵᱚᱛ ᱜᱚᱨᱚᱢ ᱛᱤ ᱠᱚ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ: ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱫᱟᱨᱟᱭ ᱛᱮ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱨᱮ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱛᱮ 13.6 ᱮᱞ ᱠᱚ ᱥᱟᱵ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ, ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ 9.2 ᱵᱤᱨᱩᱫᱷ ᱨᱮ᱾ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱠᱚᱣᱟᱜ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱵᱟᱭᱟᱥ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱧᱮᱞᱚᱜ ᱞᱮᱱᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱛᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱭ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱵᱚᱫᱚᱞ ᱞᱮᱱᱟ᱾
ᱠᱮᱥᱤᱱᱳ ᱵᱟᱦᱨᱮ
ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱟᱹᱜᱩ ᱫᱚ ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ ᱯᱷᱚᱭᱥᱟᱞᱟ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ ᱴᱷᱟᱶ ᱨᱮ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱧᱮᱞᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱠᱞᱚᱴᱯᱷᱮᱞᱴᱟᱨ ᱟᱨ ᱠᱩᱠ (1993) ᱫᱚ ᱢᱮᱨᱤᱞᱮᱱᱰ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱢᱟᱦᱟᱭ ᱢᱟᱦᱟᱭ ᱮᱞ ᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱠᱤᱱ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ: ᱢᱤᱫ ᱮᱞ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ ᱞᱮᱱ ᱥᱟᱶᱛᱮ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱮᱱᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟ ᱵᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱟᱭᱢᱟ ᱪᱟᱸᱫᱚ ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱛᱤ ᱮᱱᱟ, ᱡᱩᱫᱤ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱰᱨᱚ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱫᱚᱦᱚ ᱢᱚᱱᱮᱭᱟ᱾ ᱪᱮᱱ, ᱢᱚᱥᱠᱳᱣᱤᱴᱥ ᱟᱨ ᱥᱩ (2016) ᱫᱚ ᱯᱮᱥᱟᱫᱟᱨ ᱦᱚᱲ ᱛᱟᱞᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱠᱚ ᱧᱟᱢ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ᱾ ᱭᱩᱱᱟᱭᱴᱮᱰ ᱥᱴᱮᱴᱥ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱨᱚᱬ ᱡᱚᱡ ᱠᱚ ᱫᱚ ᱞᱟᱦᱟ ᱢᱚᱠᱚᱫᱽᱫᱚᱢᱟ ᱦᱩᱠᱩᱢ ᱮᱢ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟᱱ ᱫᱟᱨᱟᱭ ᱛᱮ ᱟᱹᱨᱤᱡ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ 3.3 ᱯᱟᱨᱥᱮᱱᱴᱮᱡ ᱯᱚᱭᱮᱱᱴ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ ᱵᱮᱥᱵᱚᱞ ᱟᱢᱯᱟᱭᱟᱨ ᱠᱚ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱴᱨᱟᱭᱠ ᱢᱮᱱ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱫᱟᱨᱟᱭ ᱛᱮ ᱥᱴᱨᱟᱭᱠ ᱢᱮᱱ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ 1.5 ᱯᱚᱭᱮᱱᱴ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱥᱮᱴᱮᱨ ᱯᱤᱪ ᱨᱮ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱜᱩᱱ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱮᱫ ᱯᱚᱨᱚᱠᱷ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱱ ᱯᱷᱤᱥ ᱧᱟᱢ ᱤᱫᱤ ᱞᱚᱱ ᱚᱯᱷᱤᱥᱟᱨ ᱠᱚ ᱛᱟᱞᱟ ᱨᱮ, 9% ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱯᱷᱚᱭᱥᱟᱞᱟ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱦᱚᱨ ᱛᱮ ᱩᱞᱴᱟᱹ ᱮᱱᱟ᱾ ᱢᱚᱠᱚᱫᱽᱫᱚᱢᱟ ᱠᱚ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱮᱜᱚᱨ ᱫᱷᱟᱨᱟ ᱛᱟᱹᱞᱤ ᱛᱮ ᱦᱮᱡ ᱞᱮᱱᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱢᱟᱨᱮ ᱯᱷᱚᱭᱥᱟᱞᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱫᱟᱨᱟᱭ ᱛᱮ ᱵᱟᱵᱚᱛ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱞᱟᱹᱭ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ, ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱢᱟᱨᱮ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱫᱚ ᱫᱟᱨᱟᱭ ᱛᱮ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱵᱟᱵᱚᱛ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱞᱟᱹᱭᱟ᱾
ᱩᱞᱴᱟᱹ ᱡᱩᱣᱟᱲᱤᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ
ᱫᱚᱨᱥᱚᱱ ᱵᱤᱜᱭᱟᱱᱤ ᱟᱭᱚᱱ ᱦᱮᱠᱤᱝ (Ian Hacking) (1987) ᱫᱚ ᱯᱮ ᱥᱟᱭ ᱨᱩᱯ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱧᱩᱛᱩᱢ ᱮ ᱫᱚᱦᱚ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱦᱚᱲ ᱠᱩᱴᱤ ᱵᱷᱤᱛᱤᱨ ᱮ ᱵᱚᱞᱚᱜ-ᱟ, ᱵᱟᱨ ᱯᱟᱥᱟ ᱰᱚᱵᱚᱞ ᱛᱩᱨᱩᱭ ᱧᱩᱨᱩᱜ ᱮ ᱧᱮᱞᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱮ ᱵᱤᱪᱟᱹᱨᱟ ᱡᱮ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱠᱚ ᱞᱟᱦᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱟᱭᱢᱟ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱜᱩᱲᱤᱭᱟᱹᱣ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱᱟ᱾ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱜᱩᱲᱤᱭᱟᱹᱣ ᱨᱮ ᱰᱚᱵᱚᱞ ᱛᱩᱨᱩᱭ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱜᱮᱭᱟ, ᱧᱤᱫᱟᱹ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱯᱟᱦᱤᱞ ᱥᱮ ᱦᱟᱡᱟᱨ ᱥᱟᱭ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱫᱚ ᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱛᱤᱱ ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱜ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱵᱟᱵᱚᱛ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱞᱟᱹᱭᱟ᱾ ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱨᱮ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱠᱟᱱᱟᱭ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱤᱨᱟᱹᱞ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ ᱵᱳᱨᱰ ᱨᱮ ᱦᱮᱡ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ ᱮ ᱵᱤᱪᱟᱹᱨᱟ ᱡᱮ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱠᱚ ᱵᱮᱱᱟᱣ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱫᱚ ᱜᱷᱟᱸᱴᱟ ᱜᱷᱟᱸᱴᱟ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱᱟ᱾ ᱥᱟᱫᱷᱟᱨᱚᱬ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ ᱫᱚ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱠᱟᱛᱷᱟ ᱫᱟᱨᱟᱭ ᱛᱮ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱨᱮ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ ᱮᱫᱟ; ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱜᱟᱱ ᱜᱟᱱ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱭ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱵᱟᱭ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱞᱮᱫ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱠᱟᱛᱷᱟ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ ᱮᱫᱟ᱾
ᱢᱤᱫ ᱢᱚᱱ ᱵᱤᱜᱭᱟᱱᱤ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱫᱚ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱮ ᱵᱤᱥᱣᱟᱥ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ
ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ ᱦᱚᱲ ᱠᱚ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱥᱟᱯᱚᱲᱛᱟ ᱠᱚ ᱮᱢ ᱟᱠᱟᱫᱟ᱾ ᱡᱟᱨᱢᱟᱱ ᱢᱚᱱ ᱵᱤᱜᱭᱟᱱᱤ ᱠᱟᱨᱞ ᱢᱟᱨᱵᱮ (Karl Marbe) ᱫᱚ ᱯᱩᱱ ᱨᱮᱡᱤᱥᱴᱟᱨ ᱮ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ, ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱨᱮ 49,152 ᱦᱚᱯᱚᱱ ᱡᱟᱱᱟᱢ, ᱟᱨ ᱮ ᱧᱟᱢ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ ᱡᱮ ᱠᱚᱲᱟ ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱠᱩᱲᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱫᱚ 17 ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱮ ᱢᱮᱱ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ ᱡᱮ ᱡᱮᱞᱮᱧ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱥᱟᱹᱜᱩᱱ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱮᱴᱟᱜ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱵᱮᱱᱟᱣ ᱮᱫᱟ᱾ ᱥᱟᱹᱜᱩᱱ ᱮᱴᱟᱜ ᱠᱟᱛᱷᱟ ᱞᱟᱹᱭ ᱮᱫᱟ: 196,608 ᱡᱟᱱᱟᱢ ᱨᱮ 17 ᱥᱮ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱚᱬᱮ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱯᱩᱱ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱩᱫᱩᱜᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱢᱟᱨᱵᱮ ᱫᱚ ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱮ ᱧᱟᱢ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱮᱜᱚᱨ ᱫᱷᱟᱨᱟ ᱞᱟᱹᱲᱤ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ ᱮᱯᱥᱴᱟᱭᱤᱱ (2013) ᱫᱚ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱠᱟᱛᱷᱟ ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟ ᱮ ᱞᱟᱹᱭ ᱮᱫᱟ; ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱥᱟᱦᱴᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱨᱩᱯ ᱮᱢ ᱮᱫᱟ᱾
ᱚᱠᱟ ᱴᱷᱮᱱ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱩᱜ-ᱟ
ᱡᱩᱫᱤ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱚᱱᱚᱛᱚᱨ ᱛᱮ ᱵᱟᱭᱟᱥ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱ ᱠᱷᱟᱱ, ᱢᱟᱨᱮ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱠᱚ ᱵᱟᱰᱟᱭ ᱮᱢᱚᱜ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱᱟ, ᱪᱮᱫᱟᱜ ᱥᱮ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱠᱚ ᱫᱚ ᱥᱟᱹᱜᱩᱱ ᱵᱚᱫᱚᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱠᱷᱟᱱᱟ ᱵᱟᱵᱚᱛ ᱥᱟᱵᱩᱫ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱᱟ᱾ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱞᱮᱵ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱤᱥᱚᱭ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱞᱟᱹᱭ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱪᱤᱱᱦᱟᱹᱣ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱦᱟᱡᱟᱨ ᱦᱟᱡᱟᱨ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱛᱤ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱪᱤᱱᱦᱟᱹᱣ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱜᱮᱞ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ, ᱵᱟᱭᱟᱥ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱠᱟᱨᱚᱬ ᱫᱚ ᱥᱟᱹᱜᱩᱱ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱜᱮᱭᱟ᱾
ᱠᱩᱠᱞᱤ ᱠᱚ
ᱵᱟᱝ᱾ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱟᱡᱟᱫ ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ ᱠᱟᱛᱷᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱩᱜ-ᱟ: ᱯᱟᱥᱟ, ᱥᱤᱠᱟᱹ, ᱞᱚᱴᱟᱨᱤ ᱮᱞ᱾
ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱠᱚ ᱥᱮᱴᱮᱨᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱟᱯᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱯᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱣ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ ᱯᱮ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ −2.70% ᱜᱮ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱᱟ᱾
ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱱᱤᱭᱚᱢ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱹᱱᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱱᱤᱭᱚᱢ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱟᱹᱣ ᱛᱮ ᱠᱟᱹᱢᱤᱭᱟ᱾
ᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱨᱟᱹᱥᱠᱟᱹ
ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱠᱚ ᱯᱩᱭᱞᱩ ᱟᱯᱮ ᱛᱮ ᱠᱩᱨᱩᱢᱩᱴᱩ ᱯᱮ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱫᱷᱟᱱ ᱫᱚ ᱩᱠᱩ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ; ᱛᱮᱭᱟᱨ ᱦᱩᱭ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ ᱡᱷᱤᱡᱽ ᱯᱮ᱾
10 ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱠ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱤᱠᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ 7 ᱦᱮᱰ ᱟᱨ 3 ᱴᱮᱞ ᱧᱮᱞᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ 1,000 ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱠ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ 517 ᱦᱮᱰ ᱟᱨ 483 ᱴᱮᱞ᱾ ᱴᱮᱞ ᱫᱚ ᱥᱟᱵ ᱞᱮᱱᱟ ᱥᱮ?
ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱫᱷᱟᱱ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ
ᱛᱮᱞᱟ ᱵᱟᱝ᱾ ᱯᱷᱟᱨᱟᱠ ᱫᱚ 4 ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 34 ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱦᱟᱲᱟ ᱮᱱᱟ᱾ ᱮᱠᱮᱱ ᱟᱹᱱᱥᱟᱹ ᱜᱮ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱥᱮᱫ ᱥᱟᱵᱟᱥᱟᱵᱤ ᱦᱮᱡ ᱮᱱᱟ᱾
ᱦᱮᱰ ᱟᱨ ᱴᱮᱞ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱹᱱᱥᱟᱹ ᱫᱚ 7/3, ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ 2.33, ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 517/483, ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ 1.07 ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱞᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱮᱱᱟ᱾ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱱᱤᱭᱚᱢᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱱᱤᱭᱚᱢᱯᱚᱨᱚᱠᱷ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱮᱞ ᱵᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟᱱ ᱟᱡᱟᱫ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝ ᱴᱷᱮᱱ ᱥᱮᱴᱮᱨᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱠᱟᱹᱢᱤ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾
ᱚᱱᱠᱚ ᱛᱟᱞᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱯᱷᱟᱨᱟᱠ ᱫᱚ 4 ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 34 ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱦᱟᱲᱟ ᱮᱱᱟ᱾ ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱥᱤᱠᱠᱟ ᱥᱟᱶ 1,000 ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱠ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ 30 ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱯᱷᱟᱨᱟᱠ ᱫᱚ ᱥᱟᱫᱷᱟᱨᱚᱬ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ: ᱥᱟᱫᱷᱟᱨᱚᱬ ᱯᱷᱟᱨᱟᱠ ᱫᱚ ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱠ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱚᱨᱜᱚ ᱢᱩᱞ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱦᱟᱲᱟᱜ-ᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱟᱹᱱᱥᱟᱹ ᱫᱚ 1 ᱥᱮᱫ ᱛᱷᱤᱨᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱪᱮᱫ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱴᱮᱞ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱩᱨᱩᱢ ᱟᱹᱜᱩ ᱠᱮᱫᱟ᱾ ᱮᱦᱚᱵ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱦᱮᱰ ᱫᱚ ᱫᱟᱨᱟᱭ 990 ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱠ ᱛᱮ ᱞᱟᱱᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱮᱱᱟ, ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤᱦᱚᱨ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱝ᱾
ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱤᱠᱠᱟ ᱯᱩᱱ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱠ ᱯᱮ ᱟᱨ ᱮᱠᱮᱱ ᱦᱮᱰ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱜᱮ ᱦᱤᱡᱩᱜ ᱠᱟᱱ ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱠ ᱠᱚ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱯᱮ᱾ ᱚᱱᱠᱚ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱫᱚ ᱦᱮᱰ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ? ᱦᱩᱭ ᱫᱟᱲᱮᱭᱟᱜ 16 ᱥᱤᱨᱤᱡᱽ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱨᱮ ᱦᱤᱥᱟᱹᱵ ᱯᱮ ᱟᱨ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱠᱚ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱦᱟᱛᱟᱣ ᱯᱮ᱾ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ 50% ᱥᱮ?
ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱫᱷᱟᱱ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ
ᱛᱮᱞᱟ ᱵᱟᱝ᱾ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ 17/42, ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ 40.5%᱾ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱛᱮ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟᱱ, ᱢᱤᱫ ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱥᱤᱠᱠᱟ ᱦᱮᱰ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱴᱷᱟᱸᱰᱟ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱧᱮᱞᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾
16 ᱥᱤᱨᱤᱡᱽ ᱞᱤᱥᱴ ᱯᱮ (H = ᱦᱮᱰ, T = ᱴᱮᱞ)᱾ ᱚᱱᱠᱚ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱟᱨ, TTTT ᱟᱨ TTTH, ᱨᱮ ᱯᱟᱹᱦᱤᱞ ᱯᱮ ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱠ ᱨᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱱ ᱦᱮᱰ ᱵᱟᱹᱱᱩᱜ-ᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱦᱮᱰ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱦᱤᱡᱩᱜ-ᱟ; 14 ᱵᱟᱹᱜᱤᱭᱟ᱾
ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱨᱮ, ᱦᱮᱰ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱦᱤᱡᱩᱜ ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱠ ᱠᱚ ᱦᱟᱛᱟᱣ ᱯᱮ ᱟᱨ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱦᱮᱰ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱧᱟᱢ ᱯᱮ᱾ HHHH ᱫᱚ 3 ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 3 ᱮᱢᱟ᱾ HHHT ᱫᱚ 3 ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 2 ᱮᱢᱟ᱾ HTHT ᱫᱚ 2 ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 0 ᱮᱢᱟ᱾ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ 14 ᱧᱮᱞ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ: ᱛᱩᱨᱩᱭ ᱥᱤᱨᱤᱡᱽ 0 ᱮᱢᱟ, ᱯᱩᱱ 1/2 ᱮᱢᱟ, ᱢᱤᱫ 2/3 ᱮᱢᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱯᱮ 1 ᱮᱢᱟ (HHHH, THHH ᱟᱨ TTHH)᱾
ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱠᱚ ᱡᱩᱲᱤ ᱯᱮ: 4 × 1/2 + 2/3 + 3 = 17/3᱾ 14 ᱛᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱯᱮ: 17/42 ≈ 40.5%᱾
ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱱ ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱠ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱴᱮᱞ ᱥᱮᱫ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱦᱮᱡ ᱟᱠᱟᱱᱟ; ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱜᱮ 50–50᱾ ᱦᱮᱞᱮᱫ ᱫᱚ ᱥᱤᱨᱤᱡᱽ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱥᱤᱨᱤᱡᱽ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱦᱟᱛᱟᱣ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱦᱤᱡᱩᱜ-ᱟ: ᱦᱮᱰ ᱛᱮ ᱯᱮᱨᱮᱡ ᱥᱤᱨᱤᱡᱽ ᱨᱮ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱜᱟᱱ ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱠ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ ᱢᱮᱱᱠᱷᱟᱱ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱜᱮ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟᱚᱜ-ᱟ, ᱢᱤᱫ ᱜᱮ ᱦᱮᱰ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ ᱥᱤᱨᱤᱡᱽ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ᱾ ᱢᱤᱞᱟᱨ ᱟᱨ ᱥᱟᱱᱡᱩᱨᱡᱚ (Miller and Sanjurjo) (2018) ᱫᱚ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ ᱠᱮᱫᱟ ᱡᱮ 1985 ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱜᱚᱨᱚᱢ ᱛᱤ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱡᱟᱜ ᱵᱟᱥᱠᱮᱴᱵᱚᱞ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱠᱚ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱛᱮ ᱜᱮ ᱢᱟᱯ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱠᱚ ᱢᱚᱱᱮ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱧᱮᱞᱚᱜ ᱠᱟᱱ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ ᱛᱮ ᱚᱱᱠᱚ ᱪᱮᱫ ᱜᱟᱱ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾
ᱞᱟᱸᱫᱟ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱠᱚᱢᱤᱠ
ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱟᱹᱣ, ᱥᱩᱫᱷᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱵᱟᱝ᱾ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱨᱤᱱ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱦᱟᱛᱟᱣ ᱟᱠᱟᱫᱟ᱾
ᱯᱷᱮᱰᱟᱛ
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Schwartz, D. G. Roll the Bones: The History of Gambling.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.
- Croson, R. & Sundali, J. “The gambler’s fallacy and the hot hand: empirical data from casinos.”
- Chen, D. L., Moskowitz, T. J. & Shue, K. “Decision making under the gambler’s fallacy: evidence from asylum judges, loan officers, and baseball umpires.”
- Clotfelter, C. T. & Cook, P. J. “The ‘gambler’s fallacy’ in lottery play.”
- Gilovich, T., Vallone, R. & Tversky, A. “The hot hand in basketball: on the misperception of random sequences.”
- Miller, J. B. & Sanjurjo, A. “Surprised by the hot hand fallacy? A truth in the law of small numbers.”
- Hacking, I. “The inverse gambler’s fallacy: the argument from design. The anthropic principle applied to Wheeler universes.”