ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱥᱴᱮᱱᱰᱟᱨᱰ ᱰᱤᱵᱷᱤᱭᱮᱥᱚᱱ
ᱨᱩᱞᱮᱴ ᱥᱴᱮᱱᱰᱟᱨᱰ ᱰᱤᱵᱷᱤᱭᱮᱥᱚᱱ, ᱣᱮᱨᱤᱭᱮᱱᱥᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛᱣᱮᱨᱤᱭᱮᱱᱥᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝ ᱜᱷᱮᱨᱟᱣ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱯᱟᱥᱱᱟᱣᱚᱜ-ᱟ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱟᱯᱲᱟᱣ᱾ ᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴ ᱚᱯ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱵᱟᱹᱲᱛᱤ, ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱠᱚᱢ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱚᱜᱚ ᱢᱩᱞ, ᱫᱚ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱟᱨ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱛᱟᱞᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱟᱫᱷᱟᱨᱚᱬ ᱥᱟᱦᱟ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾
$1 ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱨᱮ σ ᱫᱚ ᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴ ᱚᱯ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ 5.84 ᱟᱨ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ 1.00 ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱞᱮᱠᱷᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱚᱜᱚ ᱢᱩᱞ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱜᱩᱱ ᱯᱮ᱾
ᱟᱞᱜᱟ ᱱᱤᱭᱚᱢ
ᱠᱚᱢ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱯᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱫᱚ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱢᱤᱫ σ ᱵᱷᱤᱛᱤᱨ ᱨᱮ ᱟᱨ 95% ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱵᱷᱤᱛᱤᱨ ᱨᱮ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱᱟ᱾ $10 ᱥᱟᱶ 100 ᱟᱨᱟᱜᱵᱟᱡᱤᱟᱨᱟᱜ18 ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ᱾ ᱯᱷᱨᱮᱧᱪ ᱨᱮ: ᱨᱩᱡᱽ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ (ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ −$27, σ = $100) ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱫᱚ −$127 ᱟᱨ +$73 ᱛᱟᱞᱟ ᱨᱮ, ᱟᱨ ᱡᱷᱚᱛᱚ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ −$227 ᱟᱨ +$173 ᱛᱟᱞᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱᱟ᱾ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱥᱤᱢᱟᱹ ᱵᱟᱦᱨᱮ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱᱟᱜ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱟᱵᱩᱫ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱥᱩᱢᱩᱝ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱡᱮ ᱵᱤᱥ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱫᱚ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱪᱮᱫᱟᱜ √N
ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝ ᱜᱩᱬ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ; ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱚᱠᱛᱚ ᱨᱮ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱛᱮ ᱦᱟᱨᱟᱣᱚᱜ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱫᱚ N ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱛᱮ ᱵᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣᱚᱜ-ᱟ; ᱯᱟᱥᱱᱟᱣ ᱫᱚ √N ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱛᱮ ᱵᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱦᱩᱰᱤᱧ N ᱨᱮ ᱯᱟᱥᱱᱟᱣ ᱜᱮ ᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ ᱟᱨ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱫᱚ ᱦᱩᱰᱤᱧ ᱛᱮᱨᱪᱷᱟ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱥᱤᱠᱟᱹ ᱪᱟᱞᱟᱜ ᱞᱮᱠᱟ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ ᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ N ᱨᱮ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱯᱟᱥᱱᱟᱣ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱥᱟᱦᱟ ᱥᱮᱱᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱴᱷᱟᱶ ᱨᱮ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱦᱟᱹᱱᱤ ᱫᱚ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱴᱮᱱᱰᱟᱨᱰ ᱰᱤᱵᱷᱤᱭᱮᱥᱚᱱᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛᱥᱴᱮᱱᱰᱟᱨᱰ ᱰᱤᱵᱷᱤᱭᱮᱥᱚᱱᱣᱮᱨᱤᱭᱮᱱᱥ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱚᱜᱚ ᱢᱩᱞ; ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱜᱚᱱᱚᱝ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱟᱫᱷᱟᱨᱚᱱ ᱥᱟᱦᱟ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ N = (σ/ᱵᱟᱲᱛᱤ)² = (1/0.027)² ≈ 1,370 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱟᱨ (5.84/0.027)² ≈ 46,800 ᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴ ᱚᱯᱵᱟᱡᱤᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴ ᱚᱯᱢᱤᱫ ᱮᱞ, ᱵᱷᱩᱜᱛᱟᱱ 35:1᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ᱾ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱮᱞ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱞᱟᱛᱟᱨ ᱨᱮ ᱫᱚ ᱥᱟᱹᱜᱩᱱ ᱛᱷᱤᱨ ᱮᱫᱟ; ᱪᱮᱛᱟᱱ ᱨᱮ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱲᱛᱤ᱾
ᱵᱮᱵᱷᱟᱨ
ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱵᱤᱥᱮᱥ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱ ᱥᱮ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱵᱤᱪᱟᱹᱨ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ (ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ − EV)/σ ᱦᱤᱥᱟᱹᱵ ᱯᱮ᱾ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱨᱮ $10 ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱡᱩᱫᱤ 100 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ +$150 ᱨᱮ ᱢᱩᱪᱟᱹᱫ ᱮᱭ, ᱩᱱᱤ ᱫᱚ (150 + 27)/100 = 1.77σ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱭ, 25 ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ: ᱥᱟᱹᱜᱩᱱ, ᱵᱤᱥᱮᱥ ᱵᱟᱝ᱾ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ +$150 ᱨᱮ ᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴ ᱚᱯ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱫᱚ 0.3σ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱭ: ᱥᱟᱫᱷᱟᱨᱚᱬ ᱧᱤᱫᱟᱹ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱱ ᱰᱚᱞᱟᱨ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱷᱮᱜᱟᱨ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱨᱮ ᱵᱷᱮᱜᱟᱨ ᱢᱟᱱᱮ ᱫᱚᱦᱚᱭ ᱟ᱾
ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱴᱮᱱᱰᱟᱨᱰ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ
ᱚᱱᱟ ᱜᱮ ᱦᱤᱥᱟᱹᱵ ᱫᱚ ᱞᱟᱹᱭ ᱮᱫᱟ ᱡᱮ ᱰᱟᱴᱟ ᱨᱮ ᱵᱟᱲᱛᱤ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱛᱤᱱᱟᱹᱜ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱛᱤ᱾ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱟᱠᱟᱱ ᱡᱤᱛ ᱦᱟᱹᱴᱤᱧ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱴᱮᱱᱰᱟᱨᱰ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ ᱫᱚ √(p(1 − p)/N) ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ N = 1,000 ᱥᱟᱶ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ: √(0.4865 × 0.5135 / 1000) ≈ 1.6%᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱥᱤᱠᱟᱹ ᱟᱨ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱛᱟᱞᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱯᱷᱟᱨᱟᱠ ᱫᱚ 1.35% ᱠᱟᱱᱟ, ᱚᱱᱟᱛᱮ 1,000 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱦᱚᱸ ᱟᱯᱮ ᱵᱤᱥᱣᱟᱥ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱵᱷᱮᱜᱟᱨ ᱫᱟᱲᱮᱭᱟᱜ-ᱟ᱾ 10,000 ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱥᱴᱮᱱᱰᱟᱨᱰ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ ᱫᱚ 0.5% ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱵᱷᱮᱜᱟᱨ ᱫᱟᱲᱮᱭᱟᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱜᱮ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱭᱟᱥ ᱧᱟᱢ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱟᱭᱢᱟ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱛᱤ᱾
ᱛᱮᱨᱪᱷᱟ ᱵᱟᱵᱚᱛ ᱦᱩᱥᱤᱭᱟᱹᱨ
ᱦᱩᱰᱤᱧ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴ ᱚᱯ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱫᱚ ᱱᱚᱨᱢᱟᱞ ᱵᱟᱸᱴᱟᱣ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱥᱟᱦᱟ: ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱟᱹᱰᱤ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱫᱚ ᱡᱚᱛᱚ ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱨᱮ ᱞᱟᱜᱟᱛᱟᱨ −$10 ᱟᱨ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ +$350 ᱛᱩᱯᱩᱜ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ ±1σ ᱱᱤᱭᱚᱢ ᱫᱚ ᱯᱟᱥᱱᱟᱣ ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱞᱟᱹᱭ ᱮᱫᱟ, ᱢᱮᱱᱠᱷᱟᱱ N ᱥᱟᱭ ᱥᱟᱭ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱵᱟᱝ ᱥᱮᱱᱚᱜ ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱫᱷᱟᱸᱪᱟ ᱠᱷᱟᱨᱟᱯ ᱞᱟᱹᱭ ᱮᱫᱟ᱾ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤᱵᱟᱡᱤᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤᱟᱨᱟᱜ/ᱦᱮᱸᱫᱮ, ᱵᱤᱡᱳᱲ/ᱡᱳᱲ, ᱢᱟᱨᱟᱝ/ᱦᱩᱰᱤᱧ᱾ 18 ᱮᱞ, ᱵᱷᱩᱜᱛᱟᱱ 1:1᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱱᱚᱨᱢᱟᱞ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱫᱚ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ 30 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱵᱮᱥ ᱜᱮᱭᱟ᱾
ᱯᱷᱚᱨᱢᱩᱞᱟ
ᱠᱩᱠᱞᱤ ᱠᱚ
ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱥᱟᱵᱩᱫ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ ᱡᱮ ᱟᱯᱮ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ 40 ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱞᱮᱫᱟ ᱯᱮ, ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱟᱯᱮ ᱫᱚ ᱪᱟᱞᱤᱥ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱟᱹᱜᱩᱱ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱨᱮ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ ᱯᱮ᱾ ᱫᱚᱦᱲᱟ ᱠᱷᱮᱞ ᱧᱮᱞ ᱯᱮ᱾
ᱠᱚᱢ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱫᱩᱞᱩᱵᱚᱜ ᱠᱟᱱᱟ: ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱴᱮᱱᱰᱟᱨᱰ ᱵᱷᱩᱞ ᱫᱚ σ/√N ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾ N = 10,000 ᱦᱟᱹᱵᱤᱡ ᱱᱚᱣᱟ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ 1% ᱠᱟᱱᱟ᱾
ᱜᱚᱱᱤᱛ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱨᱟᱹᱥᱠᱟᱹ
ᱱᱚᱶᱟ ᱠᱚ ᱯᱩᱭᱞᱩ ᱟᱯᱮ ᱛᱮ ᱠᱩᱨᱩᱢᱩᱴᱩ ᱯᱮ᱾ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱫᱷᱟᱱ ᱫᱚ ᱩᱠᱩ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ; ᱛᱮᱭᱟᱨ ᱦᱩᱭ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ ᱡᱷᱤᱡᱽ ᱯᱮ᱾
ᱭᱩᱨᱚᱯᱤᱭᱟᱱ ᱪᱟᱠᱟ ᱨᱮ 100 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱨᱮ, ᱟᱨᱟᱜᱵᱟᱡᱤᱟᱨᱟᱜ18 ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱮᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱱ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ᱾ ᱯᱷᱨᱮᱧᱪ ᱨᱮ: ᱨᱩᱡᱽ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴᱴᱟᱠᱟᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱤᱥᱴᱮᱢ ᱟᱨᱵᱟᱝ ᱠᱷᱮᱞᱚᱸᱰ ᱵᱮᱵᱷᱟᱨ ᱵᱮᱥ ᱵᱟᱡᱤ ᱴᱟᱠᱟ᱾ ᱯᱨᱚᱜᱽᱨᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱠᱚ ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴ ᱛᱮ ᱵᱩᱡᱷᱟᱹᱣᱚᱜ-ᱟ ᱡᱮᱢᱚᱱ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱱ ᱴᱮᱵᱩᱞ ᱨᱮ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱩ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱫᱚ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱥᱮ ᱠᱚᱢ 51 ᱡᱤᱛ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱞᱟᱵᱷ ᱨᱮ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱭᱟ, ᱟᱨ ᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴ ᱚᱯᱵᱟᱡᱤᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴ ᱚᱯᱢᱤᱫ ᱮᱞ, ᱵᱷᱩᱜᱛᱟᱱ 35:1᱾ᱯᱩᱨᱟᱹ ᱯᱟᱲᱦᱟᱣ → ᱨᱮ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱭᱩᱱᱤᱴ ᱫᱚ ᱞᱟᱵᱷ ᱨᱮ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱭᱟ ᱡᱩᱫᱤ ᱚᱱᱟᱜ ᱮᱞ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱥᱮ ᱠᱚᱢ 3 ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱦᱤᱴ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱵᱮᱞ ᱠᱟᱨᱵᱷ ᱛᱮ ᱵᱟᱨᱭᱟ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱟᱸᱫᱟᱡᱽ ᱯᱮ, ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱩᱛᱛᱚᱨ ᱥᱟᱶ ᱛᱩᱞᱟᱹᱣ ᱯᱮ᱾
ᱥᱚᱢᱟᱫᱷᱟᱱ ᱩᱫᱩᱜ
ᱛᱮᱞᱟ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ: ᱵᱮᱞ ᱠᱟᱨᱵᱷ 35.6% ᱮᱢᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱩᱛᱛᱚᱨ 35.5%᱾ ᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴ ᱚᱯ: ᱵᱮᱞ ᱠᱟᱨᱵᱷ 55.0% ᱮᱢᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱩᱛᱛᱚᱨ 50.9%᱾ ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱷᱤᱭᱟᱹ ᱦᱚᱨᱟ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱠᱟᱹᱢᱤᱭᱟ ᱟᱨ ᱮᱠᱮᱞ ᱮᱞ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱵᱷᱩᱞᱟ᱾
ᱟᱨᱟᱜ: ᱡᱤᱛ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ 100 × 18/37 = 48.6, ᱯᱟᱥᱱᱟᱣ √(100 × 18/37 × 19/37) = 5.0 ᱥᱟᱶ᱾ ᱞᱟᱵᱷ ᱢᱮᱱᱮᱛᱮ 51 ᱥᱮ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ; ᱛᱟᱞᱟ ᱪᱤᱱᱦᱟᱹ, 50.5, ᱫᱚ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 0.37 ᱯᱟᱥᱱᱟᱣ ᱪᱮᱛᱟᱱ ᱨᱮ, ᱟᱨ ᱵᱮᱞ ᱠᱟᱨᱵᱷ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱪᱮᱛᱟᱱ ᱨᱮ 35.6% ᱮ ᱫᱚᱦᱚᱭᱟ᱾ 51, 52 … 100 ᱡᱤᱛ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ ᱡᱚᱲᱟᱣ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ 35.5% ᱧᱟᱢᱚᱜ-ᱟ᱾
ᱥᱴᱨᱮᱴ ᱚᱯ: ᱦᱤᱴ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ 100/37 = 2.70, ᱯᱟᱥᱱᱟᱣ √(100 × 1/37 × 36/37) = 1.62 ᱥᱟᱶ᱾ ᱯᱮ ᱥᱮ ᱵᱮᱥᱤ ᱦᱤᱴ ᱢᱮᱱᱮᱛᱮ 2.5 ᱪᱮᱛᱟᱱ, ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 0.12 ᱯᱟᱥᱱᱟᱣ ᱞᱟᱛᱟᱨ: ᱵᱮᱞ ᱠᱟᱨᱵᱷ ᱛᱮ 55.0%᱾ ᱴᱷᱤᱠ ᱛᱮ, ᱚᱱᱟ ᱫᱚ 1 ᱠᱷᱚᱱ 0, 1 ᱟᱨ 2 ᱦᱤᱴ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ, 6.5% + 17.9% + 24.7%, ᱤᱫᱤ ᱠᱟᱛᱮ, 50.9% ᱵᱟᱹᱠᱤᱭᱟ᱾
ᱵᱮᱞ ᱠᱟᱨᱵᱷ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱨᱮᱭᱟᱜ ᱵᱟᱨᱭᱟ ᱫᱷᱟᱨᱮ ᱟᱭᱢᱟ ᱨᱮᱡᱟᱞᱴ ᱞᱟᱹᱠᱛᱤᱭᱟ᱾ 100 ᱜᱷᱩᱨᱟᱹᱣ ᱛᱟᱭᱚᱢ ᱟᱨᱟᱜ ᱴᱷᱮᱱ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱜ-ᱟ; ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱮᱞ ᱟᱣᱥᱚᱛ ᱛᱮ ᱯᱮ ᱫᱷᱟᱣ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱠᱚᱢ ᱦᱤᱴ ᱦᱩᱭᱩᱜ-ᱟ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱴᱷᱮᱱ ᱵᱟᱹᱱᱩᱜ-ᱟ᱾ ᱠᱟᱨᱵᱷ ᱫᱚ “ᱦᱤᱴ ᱵᱟᱹᱱᱩᱜ” ᱨᱮ 8.7% ᱮ ᱮᱢᱟ, ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸ ᱨᱮ ᱥᱟᱹᱨᱤ ᱥᱚᱢᱵᱷᱟᱵᱱᱟ 6.5%᱾ ᱴᱮᱞᱟᱨ (Taylor, 2021) ᱵᱟᱭᱱᱚᱢᱤᱭᱟᱞ ᱟᱨ ᱵᱮᱞ ᱠᱟᱨᱵᱷ ᱚᱱᱟ ᱞᱮᱠᱟᱛᱮ ᱜᱮ ᱥᱟᱹᱢᱤᱫ ᱥᱟᱹᱢᱤᱫ ᱮ ᱫᱚᱦᱚ ᱟᱠᱟᱫᱟ᱾
ᱞᱟᱸᱫᱟ ᱞᱟᱹᱜᱤᱫ ᱠᱚᱢᱤᱠ
ᱵᱤᱥ ᱥᱮᱥᱚᱱ ᱠᱷᱚᱱ ᱢᱤᱫ ᱫᱚ ᱵᱟᱨ ᱥᱤᱜᱽᱢᱟ ᱵᱟᱦᱨᱮ ᱛᱟᱦᱮᱸᱱᱟ᱾ ᱡᱟᱦᱟᱸᱭ ᱥᱟᱵᱟᱫᱚ ᱪᱩᱞᱟᱹ ᱨᱮ ᱢᱮᱱᱟᱭ᱾
ᱯᱷᱮᱰᱟᱛ
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.